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The 4G Race: LTE, UMB & Mobile WiMax
Carriers begin making their migration path decisions...

At the moment, there's three front-runners for the fourth-generation wireless broadband crown: 3GPP LTE (Long Term Evolution), mobile WiMax and 3GPP2 UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband). All three standards will offer low latency and theoretical max speeds that will eventually make current U.S. EVDO and HSDPA speeds (and even some home landline connections) seem anemic.

Sprint, of course, is hitching their wagon to Mobile WiMax under the Xohm name. AT&T has said they're planning on migrating toward LTE. Verizon Wireless wants to use the same standard as GSM/HSPA partner Vodafone, and they collectively may choose LTE. Business Week notes that Verizon's decision will have a huge impact on vendors.
quote:
Analysts say a move by Verizon Wireless to LTE or WiMAX could prove a major setback for the CDMA family of products, a $43 billion market for handsets and infrastructure dominated by players including Qualcomm, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), LG Electronics (LGEJY), Samsung, and Nortel Networks (NT). Qualcomm and LG are among the most exposed to the CDMA market in terms of revenue and profit, but Alcatel-Lucent could suffer the most. Some $2.4 billion in Alcatel-Lucent revenue from CDMA gear would be wiped away.
At the moment, the magazine suggests that UMB is playing a distant third fiddle to LTE and Mobile WiMax. Groups like Parks Associates, meanwhile, don't technically think WiMax belongs in the "4G" category:
Click for full size
quote:
Although WiMAX supporters claim that 4G is WiMAX, we believe this is a wrongful assertion. Future versions of WiMAX may become potential 4G candidates, and OFDM modulation will be a key component of 4G, but 4G is definitely not WiMAX. WiMAX has served as a catalyst for 3GPP and 3GPP2 to accelerate their next round of innovation, adopting OFDM modulation and implementing MIMO and other smart antenna technologies. Both camps have clearly defined their paths toward 4G.
Parks notes that while Mobile WiMax does have an advantage because it will be first to market, the initial speeds offered by the technology are really only going to be marginally better than existing services. LTE and UMB, meanwhile, will theoretically be able to offer 100Mbps/50Mbps and 280Mbps/60Mbps, respectively, but won't be seen in the wild for some time.
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en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

en102

Member

LTE or WiMax.. really.

For data (laptops and other data centric devices in specific areas), I would say WiMax. For all else, (global roaming, voice, backwards compatibility,etc.) I'd say LTE. UMB doesn't have a direct path for anything other than CDMA EVDO.
xenophon
join:2007-09-17

4 edits

xenophon

Member

Re: LTE or WiMax.. really.

LTE will be limited mostly to phones and laptop cards. WiMAX is targeted to be on any kind of consumer device.

I don't think the two can really be compared other than performance. WiMAX has a completely opposite business model from cell-based networks. WiMAX is much more open like WiFi. You'll see consumer products from Cisco, D-Link, on MP3 players, GPS devices, cars, DVD players, cameras, refrigerators, etc. Won't see it nearly as much with cell-based networks.

Today you can't find a new laptop w/out WiFi built in. In a year or two, if Intel has their way you won't be able to find a laptop w/out WiFi/WiMAX built in. People will be buying devices that happen to have WiMAX at Best Buy and not even know it. When they see a 'hotspot', they'll probably think it's WiFi when it's actually WiMAX. This won't happen with LTE or UMB.

LTE will likely head down the same path of cell-based networks that require signing up for service with contracts. WiMAX should be as easy to buy service as renting a DVD at Redbox. The cell-based systems may change but the WiMAX business model is open out of the gate.
LowRider
join:2006-06-23
Dallas, GA

LowRider

Member

Why not make an Universal Device

could they not make a device (IE: like a laptop wireless card that is A,B,G,N). couldn't they just do that instead if its going to cost a lot, i mean i have no knowledge in this area but could it not work?

en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

en102

Member

Re: Why not make an Universal Device

They could (and in the past have) done some cross back end infrastructure.
Eg. CDMA / GSM phones for Verizon and Sprint
GAIT (GSM/TDMA/Analog) phones for Cingular and AT&T Wireless
WiFi/GSM/UMTS and WiFi/CDMA/EVDO for wireless data cards

Typically, they're different back end platforms (i.e. ANSI vs. MAP) vs. ??? for WiMax using various types of hardware registrations (ESN on AMPS/TDMA/CDMA vs. IMEI+SIM for GSM/UMTS) . I suspect that MAC addresses would be used on WiMAX and many other data centric devices.
DaveRb
join:2005-02-12
Allen, TX

DaveRb

Member

Re: Why not make an Universal Device

ANSI and MAP are for the Network Subsystem, MSC to MSC and MSC to HLR. Wi-MAX is the access side which would compare to the Basestation Sub-system, IOS, BSSAP, RNAP, etc.
xenophon
join:2007-09-17

xenophon

Member

WiMAX at 1Gbps

"LTE and UMB, meanwhile, will theoretically be able to offer 100Mbps/50Mbps and 280Mbps/60Mbps, respectively, but won't be seen in the wild for some time."

WiMAX 802.16m spec is in the works, which theoretically can go to 1Gbps. Crazy thing is that Sprint actually has enough spectrum to do it (100mhz per market) but it's highly doubtful consumers would ever see it... maybe will be used for backhaul.

»arstechnica.com/news.ars ··· 897.html

morbo
Complete Your Transaction
join:2002-01-22
00000

morbo

Member

Re: WiMAX at 1Gbps

sprint will be acquired for the spectrum and their voice customers. give it a few years.
xenophon
join:2007-09-17

xenophon

Member

Re: WiMAX at 1Gbps

I expect Sprint to be acquired in less than a year. Especially if it looks like WiMAX will take off. Don't be surprised if it's Google.

jgkolt
Premium Member
join:2004-02-21
Avon, OH

jgkolt

Premium Member

Re: WiMAX at 1Gbps

but sprint is such a crappy company i would hate to see sprint acquired. Does this mean their stock will go up?>

huntml
join:2002-01-23
Mullica Hill, NJ

huntml

Member

Re: WiMAX at 1Gbps

Sprint is the best choice among the major American wireless carriers for cheap, unlimited data; when I look at bills from similar users with the other big 3g carriers (ATTM, VZW) I just shake my head.

For me, the best thing that could possibly happen would be for someone with deep pockets and a commitment to mobile data services (Google? One of the Korean carriers?) to buy up Sprint.

en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

en102

Member

Re: WiMAX at 1Gbps

Sprint and T-Mobile both have similar products. Sprint has 3G, T-Mobile doesn't.

T-Mobile has rated near tops for consumers while Sprint has rated near (or at) the bottom.

Sprint can't keep itself cheap forever and keep bleeding off its Nextel customers to AT&T/VZW.
xenophon
join:2007-09-17

3 edits

xenophon

Member

Re: WiMAX at 1Gbps

Sprint does seem to be winning already when it comes to mobile data. It's cheaper yet has higher data ARPU, meaning higher % of users doing data.

The guys at EVDOinfo,com say that Sprint EVDO cards are outselling Verizon 2:1. ATT has HSDPA laptop cards but has much fewer users and half the coverage, but they do have more HSPA phones catching up.

WiMAX will be self-marketing for Sprint. Many will buy devices with WiMAX and not know it, then hookup to whatever 'hotspot' is out there. It will be Sprint or Clearwire in the States. You can be a Sprint data customer and not have a Sprint cellphone.

Sprint's troubles are the Nextel side and customer support. The data network is ahead of the others.

Sprint should become a wireless data company that happens to support voice. They could really differentiate themselves from cell companies, and are about to do so with WiMAX.

huntml
join:2002-01-23
Mullica Hill, NJ

huntml

Member

Re: WiMAX at 1Gbps

I agree. Sprint is not about to compete with any GSM carrier on phone quality/variety, and it's probably too late to fight against VZW's reputation among consumers of having a superior voice network, never mind the fact that Sprint probably has better coverage overall than VZ when one takes roaming into account. So Sprint's best chance at differentiating itself in the market as to push itself as a technical and data-services leader. I think they are trying to do this, sort of, with the new 'Sprint speed' campaign, but there seems to be some hesitance to follow through.

jgkolt
Premium Member
join:2004-02-21
Avon, OH

jgkolt to xenophon

Premium Member

to xenophon
well with the ceo fired and the scaled back of wimax and the deal off the table with clearwire I think wimax development and sprint and dwindled away. Personally i think this is a major downfall. They probably did this to appease the investors but if it was a private company then they would probably still be doing wimax.
ciucca
join:2004-05-24
Westfield, NJ

ciucca

Member

UMB Probably

Sprint and Verizon (more so than Sprint) have a huge amount of money invested EVDO CDMA. Whatever is the path of least investment will win with these companies, especially Verizon. Right know that looks like it may be UMB, regardless what is said in the press.

IMHO as an employee of one of the major players in 4g.