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The Bandwidth Crunch Bogeyman
The capacity FUD rarely comes from actual techs...
by Karl Bode Wednesday 19-Sep-2007 tags: business · bandwidth · networking
Broadband industry lobbyists and PR departments have ceaselessly predicted a bandwidth crunch that never seems to arrive, usually because they're trying to justify a new policy or rate hike, stave off regulation or in the case of hardware vendors, sell network management hardware. While this stage play continues, techs and people studying these networks say everything is fine.

The Star Tribune has an interesting article on the research of Andrew Odlyzko, who tracks Internet growth from the University of Minnesota and notes that growth is actually slowing. Odlyzko makes all of his research data freely available at this website:

Click for full size
In spite of the widespread claims of continuing and even accelerating growth rates, Internet traffic growth appears to be decelerating. In the United States, there was a brief period of "Internet traffic doubling every 100 days" back in 1995-96, but already by 1997 growth subsided towards an approximate doubling every year CO1998, and more recently even that growth rate has declined towards 50-60% per year.

While that's still significant, it's nowhere near the apocalyptic catastrophe being hoisted upon the public by think tankers with policy agendas. "Somehow, I get the feeling that the technology guys have a lot better handle on this than the lobbyists and the politicians," notes Mike Masnick over at Techdirt.

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Asmodeus

join:2004-05-26
Spring Valley, CA

enough!

who in this world can get these clowns to just shut up already about the perceived notion that bandwidth is running out... BE QUIET YOU FOOLS!

MrMoody
Free range slave
Premium
join:2002-09-03
Smithfield, NC

Shortage

Because a perceived shortage increases the price, just like gasoline, etc.

McLovin
Chicka chicka yeah
Premium
join:2005-06-12
Fairbanks, AK

QoS

I agree with the fact that the reality of a shortage isn't there.

But if we are pushing for net neutrality to get rid of QoS and packet priority, then the "series of tubes" are going to have to get bigger.
Sammer

join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA

All about Greed!

The only ones talking about the non-existent bandwidth crunch are those with greedy motives.

Romney2012
Defeat Obama 2012-Chg we can believe in
Premium
join:2002-03-03
USA
kudos:4

Re: All about Greed!

said by Sammer:

The only ones talking about the non-existent bandwidth crunch are those with greedy motives.



»www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSp···eet.html
The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed -- for lack of a better word -- is good.
Greed is right.
Greed works.
Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
Greed, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind.
And greed -- you mark my words -- will save that malfunctioning corporation called the USA.
»74.53.81.178/~eiden/mp3clips/new···1144.mp3
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bmn
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Premium,ExMod 2003-06
join:2001-03-15
hiatus

Re: All about Greed!

Quoting a psychopath... Interesting way to make a point.

MrMoody
Free range slave
Premium
join:2002-09-03
Smithfield, NC

Re: All about Greed!

Yeah, manipulating commodity markets is good for everyone, just ask Enron. And Exxon.
SylphFi
Premium
join:2007-06-07
Moses Lake, WA

Tubes

Considering all the dark fiber still out there, DOCSIS 3, copper circuit bonding, and improvements in Wifi/WiMax, the tubes are looking good. The bandwidth crunch could happen, but only because of all the egocentric Mafia-wannabe bot farmers (Storm, I am looking at you). Though, the ISP's really have no one to blame but themselves for letting this happen, and not quarantining infected machines. Thankfully, some (Qwest, and Zipp, for example) are starting to pay attention.

wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY

I cant say I 100% agree with this.....

While I wouldnt say there is an imminent "crunch" approaching, I can tell you that I understand why rates are being increased and so forth. I have personally been involved in upgrading the capacity of all your favorite ISP/telco/mobile networks, in many places around the country. Companies such as Internap, ATT, Yipes, Tmobile, RCN, Cogent, and many others have been requesting that we rapidly provide them additional OC12's, OC48's, and OC192's to increase capacity. These circuits are not cheap either, so the fact that everyone claims rate hikes are unnecessary is ridiculous. Anyone who expects rates to stay the same, or even get lower, clearly has no idea how telecom works.
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cmaenginsb
Premium
join:2001-03-19
Palmdale, CA

Re: I cant say I 100% agree with this.....

I guess it comes down to why these providers are adding capacity. In almost all cases it is because they are adding customers, you can't add customers and not add the capacity to support them. The cost of doing this is built into their cost of providing service to the new customers, so unless their existing customers start using more bandwidth there is no need for a rate increase.

As someone from the ISP industry, I have not seen the average use per customer jump that much.

wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY

Re: I cant say I 100% agree with this.....

said by cmaenginsb:

I guess it comes down to why these providers are adding capacity. In almost all cases it is because they are adding customers, you can't add customers and not add the capacity to support them. The cost of doing this is built into their cost of providing service to the new customers, so unless their existing customers start using more bandwidth there is no need for a rate increase.

As someone from the ISP industry, I have not seen the average use per customer jump that much.
Dont get me wrong, its not that the average user is consuming that much more than before. It more about the fact that there are simply more users on the network who have high bandwidth needs. Most carriers are adding capacity so they can better serve their customers (which is good), however, the cost of being able to provide higher tiers of service must be passed on. Generally speaking, the first batch of (business) customers who purchase services after an upgrade end up paying for it in some way. Back in the 90's many dot.com carriers had a "build it and they will come" mentality, and that is why most of them are long gone. Today, you are hard pressed to find a carrier that will build into a new location without already having the business (ie. signed contracts from a customer) to pay for running and splicing fiber, and all the equipment necessary to serve the customers. Its all about $ folks, and if there is no foreseeable rate of return it just aint happening!
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Skippy25

join:2000-09-13
Hazelwood, MO

Re: I cant say I 100% agree with this.....

You need to also factor in the shear fact that overtime everything gets cheaper to provide. If broadband does not, then it is 100% a management problem.

wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace

join:2004-08-07
New York, NY

Re: I cant say I 100% agree with this.....

said by Skippy25:

You need to also factor in the shear fact that overtime everything gets cheaper to provide. If broadband does not, then it is 100% a management problem.
Sure, if the number of customers stayed exactly the same, the costs of the equipment and network could be amortized to the point where the company could lower costs if they wanted to. However, it is clear that the number of customers keeps growing, and with it the cost of upgrading the network also grows. It is not realistic to expect widespread price cuts during a growth phase in any industry, let alone one that is spending billions to keep up with demand.
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newf7

join:2007-09-11
Brampton, ON
Telecom's not the only game in town. The power grid could be used and would provide a huge increase in bandwidth at considerably lower cost than upgrading telecom networks.

GlenQuagmire
Giggidy Giggidy Giggidy Goo
Premium
join:2004-02-16
Grand Rapids, MI

$$$$

As long as their is money to be made by ISP's their will always be enough bandwidth
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thiswaycomes1984

@89.149.164.x

There are bigger things to worry about

You are in the matrix. You need to take the red pin and wake up.

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