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story category The Future of Speed
Cable? Fiber? ADSL2+?
(old news - 02:14PM Friday Aug 27 2004)
tags: competition
With SBC trialing 24Mbps ADSL2+ in Missouri, Verizon offering 30Mbps Fios Fiber in Texas, and Cable providers exploring bandwidth expansion via Ultra-Wideband, the quest for the next generation of speed should evolve into an interesting battle. Assuming no miracle technologies emerge (like Juice Boosted carrier pigeons), which technology will be the dominant player in 2010? Vote in our latest poll.

Related:
  1. Telus Sues Rogers Over Ad Claims
  2. Deutsche Telekom Looking For U.S. T-Mobile Partner
  3. Charter Still Fighting With Creditors
  4. FCC Broadband Problem List Omits 'No Competition,' FCC Itself
  5. Apple Joins AT&T Verizon Snark Fest
  6. Clearwire Nabs $2.8 Billion In Additional Funding
  7. Sprint's Wireless Network Apparently Not 'Most Dependable'
  8. Verizon CEO: Hulu Will Be Dead Soon
Forums » The Future of Speed
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Post a:

ViviTheMage
vivi
Premium
join:2002-10-28
Minneapolis, MN
clubs:

h

come to minnesota? haha kthx...
zengei

join:2002-11-26
Bronx, NY

Re: h

Juice Boosted Carrier Pigeon all the way

TheGiant
Next Year Is Here.

join:2001-03-28
Augusta, GA

Juice Boosted carrier pigeon

I don't care which one dominates just so long as I have access to it at a fair price.
--
Ask me how to start an online Home based Business.

50970758
The One And Only
Premium
join:2002-02-28
mdzRghey

Re: Juice Boosted carrier pigeon

said by TheGiant See Profile:
I don't care which one dominates just so long as I have access to it at a fair price.

Yeah, no kidding.
--
| I'M Sorry, But That's Classified. |

JIGA
Its A Bird, Its A Plane, Its..
Premium
join:2002-02-02
Azle, TX
clubs:
·Charter Pipeline

Re: Juice Boosted carrier pigeon

said by 50970758 See Profile:
said by TheGiant See Profile:
I don't care which one dominates just so long as I have access to it at a fair price.

Yeah, no kidding.

Amen to that!
--
Just read the instructions

loserhead
3 Billion Chinese People Can Be Wrong

join:2004-01-01
Ellijay, GA

Re: Juice Boosted carrier pigeon

said by JIGA See Profile:
said by 50970758 See Profile:
said by TheGiant See Profile:
I don't care which one dominates just so long as I have access to it at a fair price.

Yeah, no kidding.

Amen to that!

HIFIVE
--
read my blog here

White trash

@shawcable.net
Way off topic but iss this Zander from Santa Clara? If so have you raced any trains in Northern BC lately?.......signed "The Incorrigible One":)

Jafo232
You Can't Spell Democrat Without Rat.
Premium
join:2002-10-17
Boonville, NY
·RoadRunner Cable

said by TheGiant See Profile:
I don't care which one dominates just so long as I have access to it at a fair price.

As long as I have ACCESS to it!
--
nos insuadibilis defessus, nos insuadibilis inclino, nos insuadibilis concido. My Blog.
hedyd4u
Premium
join:2003-12-16
Schenectady, NY
Due out in Chicago when the cubs win the World Series.

TheMetrix
R.T.F.M. - P.E.B.K.A.C
Premium
join:2002-06-15
Utica, MI
clubs:
·WOW Internet and C..

said by TheGiant See Profile:
I don't care which one dominates just so long as I have access to it at a fair price.

You might get access to it but I wouldn't put your last breath of air on the fair price part.
--
I hated going to weddings as a child, all of the aunts and grandmotherly types would come and poke me saying "You're Next". They quit years later when I started doing the same to them at funerals
IceWindius

join:2004-03-11
Montana

But...

Wonderful but I want FARKING LOW PING! Qwest, are you listening? Hello? Owel.....

dslwanter
Why would I want DSL? I have FTTH
Premium
join:2002-12-16
Lowellville, OH
·Armstrong Zoom In..
·AT&T Midwest

Re: But...

said by IceWindius See Profile:
Wonderful but I want FARKING LOW PING! Qwest, are you listening? Hello? Owel.....

You will get your low price, eventually. It's going to be like Broadband 2, "the sequel to broadband". DSL and Cable went for $49.95+ 3 years ago, today it's down to $26.95 and so forth. Probably looking at the same scenario with this stuff. Just my $0.02 though.
--
Maaaannn you wanna come in the garage and see my merchandise?
StEaLtHBuNnY

join:2002-10-12
Bergenfield, NJ

Re: But...

i think history is gunna repeat itself with 49.99++

AuraReturn
Premium
join:2003-08-18
San Francisco, CA
clubs:

Re: But...

said by StEaLtHBuNnY See Profile:
i think history is gunna repeat itself with 49.99++

Then I am staying with just broadband.
Flizesh
Premium
join:2003-08-16
Staten Island, NY
clubs:

1 edit
except cable is still 49.95 .. or close to it

dslwanter
Why would I want DSL? I have FTTH
Premium
join:2002-12-16
Lowellville, OH
·Armstrong Zoom In..
·AT&T Midwest

Re: But...

said by Flizesh See Profile:
except cable is still 49.95 .. or close to it

Most around here are going for around $29.95 to compete with SBC. But if you want decent speeds yes you will pay around $49.95+++++++ for cable.
--
Maaaannn you wanna come in the garage and see my merchandise?

Anti_Cyrix
Premium
join:2003-03-06
Sacramento, CA

Re: But...

said by dslwanter See Profile:
But if you want decent speeds yes you will pay around $49.95+++++++ for cable.

Yes, and that's what I pay for 10/10Mbps fiber

dslwanter
Why would I want DSL? I have FTTH
Premium
join:2002-12-16
Lowellville, OH
·Armstrong Zoom In..
·AT&T Midwest

Re: But...

said by Anti_Cyrix See Profile:
said by dslwanter See Profile:
But if you want decent speeds yes you will pay around $49.95+++++++ for cable.

Yes, and that's what I pay for 10/10Mbps fiber

Um note I said Cable, not fiber.
--
Maaaannn you wanna come in the garage and see my merchandise?
rengaw03

join:2002-09-13
Spokane, WA
$49.95 cable? Where? I'm paying $55 for cable internet right now, and I don't see it dropping anytime soon.

koolman2
Premium
join:2002-10-01
Anchorage, AK

1 edit
There's not much you can do to lower ping, unless you somehow managed to figure out how to bend the space-time continuum [Edit: on a large scale, with low prices], in which case you would be the richest person alive.

ShootToThril
Tell The Truth
Premium
join:2004-06-07
Sherman Oaks, CA
clubs:

Re: But...

Didn't you watch "Dude, Where my Car"?

It's already been done, are you living in the same reality?:D

koolman2
Premium
join:2002-10-01
Anchorage, AK

Re: But...

No, I didn't, and I meant on a large scale, not in those small lab tests.
Goldengamego
Premium
join:2004-02-22
Okemos, MI


1 edit
said by koolman2 See Profile:
There's not much you can do to lower ping, unless you somehow managed to figure out how to bend the space-time continuum [Edit: on a large scale, with low prices], in which case you would be the richest person alive.

Switch to SBC perhaps?

Tracing route to broadbandreports.com [209.123.109.175]
over a maximum of 30 hops:

1 6 ms 6 ms 6 ms adsl-69-208-243-254.dsl.lgtpmi.ameritech.net [69
.208.243.254]
2 7 ms 7 ms 7 ms dist1-vlan60.lgtpmi.ameritech.net [65.42.245.242
]
3 7 ms 7 ms 7 ms bb1-g8-0.lgtpmi.ameritech.net [65.42.245.123]
4 11 ms 10 ms 10 ms bb1-p1-4.sfldmi.ameritech.net [151.164.189.54]
5 11 ms 10 ms 11 ms bb2-p15-0.sfldmi.ameritech.net [151.164.40.182]

6 19 ms 18 ms 20 ms core2-p6-0.crchil.sbcglobal.net [151.164.242.37]

7 19 ms 19 ms 19 ms core1-p1-0.crchil.sbcglobal.net [151.164.188.29]

8 19 ms 19 ms 19 ms bb1-p2-1.chcgil.ameritech.net [151.164.242.201]

9 20 ms 19 ms 19 ms bb2-p5-0.chcgil.ameritech.net [151.164.191.178]

10 20 ms 20 ms 20 ms ex1-p3-0.eqchil.sbcglobal.net [151.164.188.162]

11 20 ms 19 ms 20 ms eqix.ge-0-2-0.gbr1.chi.nac.net [206.223.119.69]

12 38 ms 38 ms 38 ms 0.so-0-2-0.gbr1.nwr.nac.net [209.123.11.237]
13 38 ms 38 ms 38 ms 0.so-7-3-0.gbr2.oct.nac.net [209.123.11.58]
14 38 ms 37 ms 38 ms www.dslreports.com [209.123.109.175]

Trace complete.
--
Because Goldengamegod won't fit:p

DaSneaky1D
one wall to block them all
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-29
The Lou
·Charter Pipeline

Re: But...

You have (nearly) the same route I do. SBC has seriously improved their network over the years. Nice that a company can keep almost all of their traffic on their own network until the destination's ISP handoff.
--
] :: my trivial ramblings :: [
pacmanfan
Premium
join:2003-11-22
Mansfield, MO

There's no one technology that will take over...

I think it will largely depend on the area... ADSL2+ is good for areas where there's a CO or RT every couple miles, and in some cases it may be cheapest to provide ADSL2+ by deploying lots of RTs with FTTN.

In many cases, I think cable has the edge, since their infrastructure is pretty ubiquitous in urban settings, and the network can handle insane speeds if need be.

I don't think FTTH will see wide deployment until the material costs come down significantly. It's a large invest that most companies or cities just can't afford to make at this time.

Wireless has a definite edge in low population density areas, or in areas where there isn't fiber/cable infrastructure. One major drawback to wireless is that in a typical small-time WISP, they can't afford to feed their tower with anything better than T1s, and oversubscribed ones at that. It's currently too expensive for most WISPs to provide speeds competing with what cable, fiber, and ADSL (let alone ADSL2+) can offer, the equipment that can provide 150 users with 10mbps of non-bursty speed isn't cheap, even if it is oversubscribed.

Finally, it'd be nice to see ReachDSL take on more adoption. It's been demonstrated at over 60,000ft on a dry pair. This may be the only cost-effective solution for poor low-population areas, even if it isn't much better than ISDN at long range.
vic102482
Premium
join:2002-04-30
Upper Marlboro, MD

Re: There's no one technology that will take over...

I think every telco will eventually have to make the move to fiber. All of those copper based technologies have distance factors and speed limitations. You keep bumping up those speeds and the integrity of the data continues to degrade. Fiber has unlimited speeds and distance is no longer a factor from the CO.

Fiber can also carry telephone and TV, while cable can do this, fiber will eventially be the last one standing.
--
I tie a rope around my penis and jump from a tree, don't you wanna grow up to be just like me!!!!

icp1
Premium
join:2000-10-13
Saint Louis, MO
clubs:
·AT&T DSL Service

Re: There's no one technology that will take over...

said by vic102482 See Profile:
I think every telco will eventually have to make the move to fiber. All of those copper based technologies have distance factors and speed limitations. You keep bumping up those speeds and the integrity of the data continues to degrade. Fiber has unlimited speeds and distance is no longer a factor from the CO.

Fiber can also carry telephone and TV, while cable can do this, fiber will eventially be the last one standing.

I agree somewhat, but they are all pushing fiber down the backbones. So once they grab a ton of $$$ cash from ADSL2 then the only move is fiber from node to house. Yes it's a big move but 10 years from now won't be as big a deal cost wise.

TheToro
Premium
join:2003-06-05
London, UK

article

maybe that helps »www.telecomasia.net/telecomasia/···d=103265

exocet_cm
In memory of dadkins
Premium
join:2003-03-23
New Orleans, LA
clubs:

Why...

cant they test this stuff in my neighborhood?

asdfdfdf

@xtraport.net

...

Are 43% of people actually thinking fiber will dominate in 5 years... or are they not reading the question and simply hoping and dreaming?

Count Hogula3
John Forged Kerry
Premium
join:2004-07-10
Corona, CA

Whatever comes...

It will be the leftovers of video and voice content delivery. The telcos would like to expand their markets into video and cable has to keep up. HDTV delivery will force bandwidth upgrades anyway so I think all of the above technologies will end up providing high speed data servers just from different providers.
--
»www.scaryjohnkerry.com | »media1.streamtoyou.com/rnc/080304v1.wmv | Don't have it, demand it!»www.theanimenetwork.com

J D McDorce
Premium
join:2001-12-29
Westland, MI

Regulatory Input Required...

The dominant technology in 2010 may largely depend on what decisions are made by the Congress, the courts, and the FCC between now and then, as well as posturing by providers to attempt to obtain decisions which are potentially favorable to their individual business cases. Regulatory related-issues which potentially hold the future in the balance include:

1) Regulation of VoIP

Much of the cost advantage that VoIP holds over POTS is due to the taxes and regulatory compliance constraints placed on POTS that are not currently applicable to VoIP. While one could debate the fairness of a disproportionate burden being placed on one of two technologies providing a similar function to the end user, if it comes down to a decision to regulate VoIP versus deregulate POTS it may be a fair assumption that too much money goes into state and federal coffers to deregulate POTS. Regulating VoIP would certainly feed the kitty of governments at varying levels, but would likely curb talk of fiber-to-the-whatever by the RBOCs and place further cable plant enhancements at risk. Leaving VoIP effectively unregulated might accelerate fiber rollout by the RBOCs (replacing POTS with VoIP) in order to be competitive with cable in the RBOCs historic core business.

2) Line sharing

Much of the advantage that cable currently holds in number of broadband subscribers can be traced to the RBOCs holding back expanded DSL availability over the issue of line sharing. Where this ends up remains to be seen. I have a hunch that even the rhetoric about fiber will come to quick halt if the RBOCs are required to share it. From the cable side, there are still issues from the Ninth Circuit's decision that need to be resolved.

3) Broadband as a National Priority

It is still difficult to tell if this is any more than political lip service from both sides of the aisle during an election year. If either side is actually serious, this might tend to shape what we see by 2010.

Just some things to think about...

evergreek
Boeing Rocks

join:2003-05-25
Hialeah, FL
clubs:

FIBER!

Give some good FIBER!:D

Jim_in_VA

join:2004-07-11
Cobbs Creek, VA

Screw the Future ...how about NOW???

The FUTURE???

Hell, no one can get me ANY broadband where I am.

How about EXTENDING the current offerings.

Get off your ass VERIZON ...broadband to the masses..yeah right
fearspooky

join:2004-07-18
Irvine, CA

mmm japan..

we should all just move to japan and enjoy the 50+mbps for 3,000yen a month (about $27)

TheSaint

join:2002-01-25
Hanover Park, IL
clubs:

Re: mmm japan..

Just remember that even a tiny apparment will chew up any remaining money in your pocket if you're in a dense urban area (the parts with good broadband). :P

justmeathome

@fbs.net

wireless is the future.

wireless is the future broadband.
radougherty

join:1999-07-23
Austin, TX
·RoadRunner Cable

Nobody's going to spend $'s

I voted cable since telco's won't spend the $'s to upgrade their physical plants. SBC STILL has to roll out ADSL to parts of their network let alone go back and upgrade existing. All the telco's talk about fiber to the home is a smoke screen so they can say let us raise rates now and we'll upgrade. We'll get the upgrade in rates but no upgrade in the network.

d_man60112

join:2004-06-09
Cortland, IL

Re: Nobody's going to spend $'s

I think that Verizon & SBC ARE running Fiber all over the place. For example, the Chicagoland area is not on any radar screens or press releases for FTTH/ FTTP but I've been seing fiber run everywhere! It's running all over the place right next to Comcast's fiber and coax. If I had billions to spend, I'd run fiber to RT's, DSLAMS, etc. and wait until the FCC finalizes line sharing. If they say you must share, I'd say sure, share my copper. If FCC says no sharing, I'd start rolling out the fiber to hoseholds like there's no tomorrow.
radougherty

join:1999-07-23
Austin, TX

Re: Nobody's going to spend $'s

I think SBC's running fiber only when they need to. Example, we needed additional access into the campus a work. We had to wait weeks while SBC ran new fiber down the road.
majorash

join:2004-06-21
Beaver Dam, WI
·Charter Pipeline

Doesn't everyone?

Doesn't every Cable and Phone co. have fiber in their networks? Why not just run them right up to the houses while they're laying them instead of just ending it when it comes into town. I know there are a couple of fiber lines run just outside the little village I live in. They just had to re-route them because they widened and moved a road over about 25ft. So why not run it right in?

majorash

DrewD50
Premium
join:2004-08-28
Canada

Power Lines.... calling all Homers

Broadband over power lines (BPL) hardware is already in place........ what else has that advantage? Later Dudes

DrewD50
Premium
join:2004-08-28
Canada

Re: Power Lines.... calling all Homers

Oh and one more thing.....
Imagine a light bulb network connection...... just screw it in!
theshape

join:2004-08-14
Gate City, VA

anger

Looking into the future of broadband when I am still not able to get regular broadband. This pisses me off so much.
Forums » The Future of Speed


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