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The Internet Ends in 2010
Unless you give AT&T what they want

More warnings of a looming bandwidth apocalypse, this time from USAToday, who insists that the Internet "will start to seem pokey as early as 2010, as use of interactive and video-intensive services overwhelms local cable, phone and wireless Internet providers."

The paper is (none too skeptically) regurgitating the findings of Nemertes Research, who insist that ISPs need to invest $55 billion -- or 70% more than currently planned -- if they want to avoid a capacity crunch. Gaze into their crystal ball:

quote:
The findings indicate that by 2010, the Internet’s capacity will not likely accommodate user demand. As a result, users could increasingly encounter Internet “brownouts” or interruptions to the applications they’ve become accustomed to using on the internet. For example, it may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube. Overall, the impact of this inadequate infrastructure will be primarily to slow down the pace of innovation.
Click for full size
Of course the fact that capacity is important is not news, and providers can either upgrade their networks to handle demand -- or go out of business. They unsurprisingly almost always choose the former, and the chicken littles are always wrong. So why do the warnings continue?

As we've stated previously, most warnings of capacity armageddon come from traffic shaping companies looking to sell hardware, or industry lobbyists trying to shape policy through think tanks. In this case Nemertes's study was funded with help from the Internet Innovation Alliance, a group spearheaded by AT&T.

The IIA has been pushing the idea of a looming "exaflood" for some time, with the primary goal being industry deregulation. The argument being that if these companies don't get exactly what they want from lawmakers in Washington, the entire Internet collapses and we're back to using soup cans and string.

If you're not afraid yet, the IIA recently offered up this video aimed at convincing you the end is near. They don't make their sales pitch until 4:20, where they hint that "wise public policy" (read: positions favored by their clients such as franchise reform and no network neutrality laws) should save us from the bandwidth bogeyman.
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DotMac4
Shill H8r
Premium Member
join:2007-10-26
Huntington Beach, CA

1 edit

DotMac4

Premium Member

Supply will increase with demand

Supply will simply accelerate. Level 3 and other providers have nothing to gain and everything to lose by reaching capacity. Reaching capacity costs them a lot of money and there is certainly a large opportunity cost. It is in their best interest to keep up with demand.

swhx7
Premium Member
join:2006-07-23
Elbonia

swhx7

Premium Member

Re: Supply will increase with demand

Isn't there excess capacity on the mainlines? That's what I've read. The bottleneck is from the endpoints to the backbones. Residential service in particular needs to get upgraded to fiber.

It's easy to get these dire predictions if you assume demand will continue increasing at the present rate, but also assume that infrastructure will remain the same. But that's not realistic.

The study is contrived to support anti-neutrality political maneuvering.

en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

en102

Member

Re: Supply will increase with demand

Increasing bandwidth by a factor of 2 at the home (per line), would require capacity at the backhaul to increase substantially, if that capacity is not already there.
Items such as sniffing (AT&T's anti-piracy attempt), and throttling (Sandvine - Comcast, COX, and others) are attempts at allowing the Telcos/Cableco's to have their cake and eat it too.
Eg. We'll give you 50Mbps, but you can only download HTML and items through our portal.

If they _really_ want to push that kind of service, they _should_ call it AOL or something else, not 'Internet'.

hopeflicker
Capitalism breeds greed
Premium Member
join:2003-04-03
Long Beach, CA

1 recommendation

hopeflicker

Premium Member

and the shills...

will blame it on P2P
LowRider
join:2006-06-23
Dallas, GA

LowRider

Member

Re: and the shills...

said by hopeflicker:

will blame it on P2P
that's why they want to get rid of Network Neutrality

spewak
R.I.P Dadkins
Premium Member
join:2001-08-07
Elk Grove, CA
·Consolidated Com..

spewak

Premium Member

Re: and the shills...

said by LowRider:
said by hopeflicker:

will blame it on P2P
that's why they want to get rid of Network Neutrality
Exactly. Nothing more, nothing less!!

bUU
join:2007-05-10
Kissimmee, FL

bUU to LowRider

Member

to LowRider

The problem isn't specifically P2P but rather the way P2P goes hand-in-hand with super-high volume usage of bandwidth. For practically everything else in our world, you pay for how much you use. Heavy users pay more; light users don't have to subsidize the heavy users, and instead pay only for what they use. That's equity.

"Net neutrality" is just a cover for "make everyone pay for my excesses".

tomatoe
Premium Member
join:2002-08-03
Kansas City, MO

tomatoe to hopeflicker

Premium Member

to hopeflicker
said by hopeflicker:

and the shills will blame it on P2P
Unless you work at an ISP and actually see what the traffic is, I'd hold my breath. 50-60% off all the backbone traffic is P2P. It's a fact ... it's not web browsing, it's not gaming, it's not multicast, it's not voip, it's not email ...it's P2P.

bUU
join:2007-05-10
Kissimmee, FL

bUU to hopeflicker

Member

to hopeflicker
... and the "miscreants" and their "apologists" will call people who disagree with them "shills" (probably because they cannot accept the reality that reasonable people disagree with them). :rolleyes: Are we done calling each other names?

Geez... sometimes it is like friggen kindergarten around here!!!
kcblack
Premium Member
join:2000-09-11
Chicago, IL

kcblack

Premium Member

Doom and Gloom

4:20 into the video...makes you wonder what they have been smokin'

As I remember, the Internet (notice the capital I) has been doomed to meltdown several times in the past and it hasn't come to pass yet.

There has been one of those rules of thumb that computer guys have known since the COBOL days. "Data expands to fill the available space", its true of RAM, its true of disk storage, its true of bandwidth....'nuff said.

Kevin

JRW2
R.I.P. Mom, Brian, Gary, Ziggy, Max.
Premium Member
join:2004-12-20
La La Land

1 edit

JRW2

Premium Member

Re: Doom and Gloom

I'm sorry, your logical response can not be accepted, we all must put on our hats and wait for the imminent meltdown of the internet.

Have these people forgotten about all the MILES of dark fiber that exist NOW!

FIOS has PLENTY of bandwidth to go around NOW and with the GPON upgrade, they will have an even larger pipe to your home to use.
kcblack
Premium Member
join:2000-09-11
Chicago, IL

kcblack

Premium Member

Re: Doom and Gloom

sorry, I forgot for a minute that I was supposed to write a FUD response

Kevin

Jigsaw
Stardust We Are
Premium Member
join:2000-10-21
Cleveland, OH

Jigsaw to JRW2

Premium Member

to JRW2
We Just need more trucks and Big Pipes.I been waiting for my E-mail from last year i still have not received it .
bogey7806
join:2004-03-19
Here

bogey7806 to kcblack

Member

to kcblack
'"Data expands to fill the available space", its true of RAM, its true of disk storage, its true of bandwidth....'nuff said.'

But filling the pipe completely is still a problem. Same as filling up all the RAM or HDD space.

pnh102
Reptiles Are Cuddly And Pretty
Premium Member
join:2002-05-02
Mount Airy, MD

pnh102

Premium Member

Only If...

Does Netcraft confirm it?
gaforces (banned)
United We Stand, Divided We Fall
join:2002-04-07
Santa Cruz, CA

gaforces (banned)

Member

OTA HDTV

Just over the past few months, 3 more ota hdtv channels have popped up in my area.
One of »www.newegg.com/Product/P ··· 15100017 and »www.radioshack.com/produ ··· e=family and Im getting 9 channels.

BodyBumper
join:2004-06-21
Beverly Hills, CA

BodyBumper

Member

Re: OTA HDTV

said by gaforces:

Just over the past few months, 3 more ota hdtv channels have popped up in my area.
One of »www.newegg.com/Product/P ··· 15100017 and »www.radioshack.com/produ ··· e=family and Im getting 9 channels.
Bizarre post.
gaforces (banned)
United We Stand, Divided We Fall
join:2002-04-07
Santa Cruz, CA

gaforces (banned)

Member

Re: OTA HDTV

Sorry, I should elaborate.
Free over the air hdtv stations should alleviate some of the pressures on the internet for video.

jester121
Premium Member
join:2003-08-09
Lake Zurich, IL

jester121

Premium Member

Re: OTA HDTV

They have on demand OTA? That would be cool.

gaforces (banned)
United We Stand, Divided We Fall
join:2002-04-07
Santa Cruz, CA

gaforces (banned)

Member

Re: OTA HDTV

said by jester121:

They have on demand OTA? That would be cool.
Technically possible with new equipment but more on the wishlist side, Id like the history channel, sci-fi, and speed on ota hdtv too

If I wanted to watch something bad enough to pay for on demand, I'll buy the dvd.

jester121
Premium Member
join:2003-08-09
Lake Zurich, IL

jester121

Premium Member

Re: OTA HDTV

said by gaforces:

If I wanted to watch something bad enough to pay for on demand, I'll buy the dvd.
Ummm... that's kind of the point -- if everyone shared your view, there wouldn't be any video over the internet at all, other than amateur crap.
nasadude
join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD

nasadude

Member

excellent stenography

the USA story is a brilliant example of main stream media stenography:

take whatever someone tells you and write it down, with no fact checking, alternate sourcing or critical thinking applied.

I wonder how much writers for USA Today make? I can stenog as good as the next guy.

pnh102
Reptiles Are Cuddly And Pretty
Premium Member
join:2002-05-02
Mount Airy, MD

pnh102

Premium Member

Re: excellent stenography

said by nasadude:

take whatever someone tells you and write it down, with no fact checking, alternate sourcing or critical thinking applied.
Wow... I totally agree with you! Hell froze over again!
said by nasadude:

I wonder how much writers for USA Today make? I can stenog as good as the next guy.
Don't forget the real fictional writers are out on strike. USA Today has to make do with scabs till the next contract is approved.
jebba2005
join:2005-01-13
Portland, ME

jebba2005

Member

hmm

In my MIS class, in one chapter we are told that overbuilding fiber nertworks was part of the cause of the dot com bubble. It also talks about the massive amount of dark fiber sitting dormant. The next chapter claims the internet is unable to handle the traffic it sees today. Can they have it both ways?


TScheisskopf
World News Trust
join:2005-02-13
Belvidere, NJ

1 recommendation

TScheisskopf

Member

Re: hmm

The networks know One True Thing: in Washington, FUD, lubricated by lobbying money, works.

The average congresscritter knows nothing about IT and reflexively accepts both the word of the industry "experts" and their contributions.

So yes, if we don't speak up, en masse, they can have it both ways. And they will. If we don't speak up.

Rogue Wolf
An Easy Draw of a Sad Few
join:2003-08-12
Troy, NY

Rogue Wolf

Member

Re: hmm

In Washington, whoever has the most money is right. After all, if they weren't right, they wouldn't have so much money, would they?

TScheisskopf
World News Trust
join:2005-02-13
Belvidere, NJ

TScheisskopf

Member

Re: hmm

Exactly. So we have this area of highly-concentrated correctness in Washington, sprinkled with streetwalkers for a bit of spice: they call it "K Street".

Matt3
All noise, no signal.
Premium Member
join:2003-07-20
Jamestown, NC

Matt3 to jebba2005

Premium Member

to jebba2005
said by jebba2005:

In my MIS class, in one chapter we are told that overbuilding fiber nertworks was part of the cause of the dot com bubble. It also talks about the massive amount of dark fiber sitting dormant. The next chapter claims the internet is unable to handle the traffic it sees today. Can they have it both ways?

Yes, because there has to be equipment on each end of the fiber to make it active and then ongoing maintenance to the fiber and equipment. That's the expensive part ...

jester121
Premium Member
join:2003-08-09
Lake Zurich, IL

jester121

Premium Member

Re: hmm

What, you can't just put a Linksys router and a fiber transceiver at each end? [/sarcasm]

If nothing else, this site servers to illustrate that having a little bit of information is dangerous.

P.S. MattE, I'm not busting your chops, your post is right on. It's the other simplistic ninnies that make me shake my head...

Packeteers
Premium Member
join:2005-06-18
Forest Hills, NY
Asus RT-AC3100
(Software) Asuswrt-Merlin

2 edits

Packeteers to jebba2005

Premium Member

to jebba2005
After working for a company that laid backbone fiber all over NYC, I can testify this is true. We used to lay cables and termination test 384 fiber strand cables, while the customer only used 16 of them. so between the dark fibers, and quantum leaps being made every year in data compression algorithms, we won't have capacity problems probably ever. there may be a bottle neck forming here and there that backbone designers will have to circumvent, but no apocalyptic capacity shortage. the expensive part IS laying the fiber. attaching equipment to each strand is justified and amortized by the port addition and throughput metering that is ultimated charged back to the customer. so higher bandwidth capacity requirements may not reduce our broadband end use cost anytime soon, but there certainly will never be a shortage of it unless you live in an area who's Central Office distribution center near you is not worth building out just to serve a few people like you. some areas have this problem even with old aDSL copper availability, especially if they are well penetrated by cable TV operators.

TMMerlin
The Devil made me do it
join:2003-06-19
Oxford, MI

TMMerlin

Member

Not to worry !

I am sure the "traffic shapers" and the "ISP throttles" will push and push and push and raise costs and raise costs and when we get the "volume monitor police" authorized by the Patriot Act ( yah see all that huge traffic is just disguised terrorist activity planning) and we that just pluck along won't feel a thing anyway !

Nightfall
My Goal Is To Deny Yours
MVM
join:2001-08-03
Grand Rapids, MI

Nightfall

MVM

Well, it sells newspapers.

Seems that the media as a whole are all about putting fear into the public. I compare this article to all the fearmongering I read about when it comes to Halloween and kids candy being poisoned. Will the internet end in 2010? I seriously doubt it.
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144

openbox9

Premium Member

Re: Well, it sells newspapers.

Sex Violence Destruction War Drugs Political Bashing Apocalypse sells

BabyBear
Keep wise ...with Nite-Owl
join:2007-01-11

BabyBear

Member

Hang in there!

So I guess this means that if AOL could just hang in there till 2010 they might make a come back. Seeing as how with the internet being so slow, whats old is new again! We all go retro and back to dialup!

Well, at least till the Mayan calendar ends in 2012.

"Sign up now for the Comcast triple play! Internet dialup at blazing 44kbps speed, with a massive 100 hours of monthly usage included! Comcast VOP phone service, that's right Voice over Pots is back! And the areas voted #1 HD TV service with picture so compressed and pixelated every show looks like a crime drama with peoples faces 'mosaic-ed' out. All for the low starting price of $149.99 per month with 3 year commitment."
jervin123
join:2005-04-14
Philadelphia, PA

jervin123

Member

*OMG*

OMG what will the world do without the internet, maybe the Chinese will take over our power grid right before then.
Synbios
join:2002-05-18
Arlington, VA

1 recommendation

Synbios

Member

Re: *OMG*

delete youtube, that will solve half the problem.
jervin123
join:2005-04-14
Philadelphia, PA

jervin123

Member

Re: *OMG*

can't simply just "delete" youtube. Youtube has become a Goliath and is slowly integrating with it's owner Google to become an even larger entity.

PolarBear03
The bear formerly known as aaron8301
Premium Member
join:2005-01-03

PolarBear03

Premium Member

What about Al?

Can't we just hire Al Gore to invent a new, faster internet?
SilverSurfer1
join:2007-08-19

SilverSurfer1

Member

USA Today Does Not Disappoint

This is fear-mongering at its finest. And as is well known, FUD sells newspapers.

fatmanskinny
Premium Member
join:2004-01-04
Wandering
·AT&T FTTP

1 recommendation

fatmanskinny

Premium Member

The presidential race is coming up....

I am sure the fear-mongering will increase. Next up:

* Google is going to start the new world order

* Bush is really a democrat

* Hillary and Obama slept together

* Justin from DSLReports is really an automated program being beta-tested by Microsoft / Linux / Apple / IBM.

blitz
@WYOMING.COM

blitz

Anon

* Hillary and Obama slept together

Thanks,

I really could have done without that visual!

The only thing worse would have been to toss in Barney Frank or Ted Kennedy for a.......

Gotta go barf.........
axus
join:2001-06-18
Washington, DC

1 edit

axus

Member

did they expect traffic to stop growing?

The amount of data that people send back and forth will always be increasing. Internet providers are always growing their capacity so they can sell more.

If traffic is growing faster than they can build out quick enough to keep up, then guess what? They can raise the price! When a resource is scarce, raising the price allows a "fair" distribution, and encourages new producers to appear.

Obviously an increased price is good for AT&T and other backbone providers, so why are they against it? Of course it's possible that the internet isn't growing too fast, and they are using it for other purposes. But it's believable that production can't keep up. I think the issue is they don't want new producers to appear. If they can't provide all the bandwidth fast enough, other companies would build more to meet the demand. That would mean future competition for them, and the capacity crunch would be met eventually, bringing prices down.

What they'd probably like, instead, is to control the demand side by throttling traffic or capping it. It's like the old phone monopolies where people didn't use much long distance because of the cost... except instead of cost they'll use poor performance. I don't think this will work, though. The business market is always going to demand good performance, and since it's more profitable, competitors would show up there first. From there, they can move into the consumer market.

ninjatutle
Premium
join:2006-01-02
San Ramon, CA

ninjatutle

Member

2010 = bad year

IP addresses will run out. IPv4.

We're doomed.


As of May 2007, predictions of exhaustion date of the unallocated IANA pool seem to converge to between March 2010 and May 2010.
»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IP ··· haustion

••••

Scatcatpdx
Fur It Up
join:2007-06-22
Portland, OR

Scatcatpdx

Member

Even if it tru its not going to happen

55,000,000,000
is a lot of money. IF the cable companies spend that much money upgrading, one go to see a huge amount of defaults and bankruptcy in the industry. As much Google wants cram HD video down the network it not going to happen as longs as the bandwidth needed is not economically feasible. Economics is the regulator of internet bandwidth.

Thespis
I'm not an actor, but I play one on TV.
Premium Member
join:2004-08-03
Keller, TX

Thespis

Premium Member

Pokey?

quote:
...will start to seem pokey
How many kbps is "pokey"?


fatness
subtle

join:2000-11-17
fishing

fatness

Re: Pokey?

said by Thespis:
quote:
...will start to seem pokey
How many kbps is "pokey"?
You put your right foot in.
And then you wait a minute.
You take your right foot out.
And then you wait a minute.
You put your right foot in.
And then you wait a minute.
And you shake it all about.
And then you wait a minute.

Ben
Premium Member
join:2007-06-17
Fort Worth, TX

Ben

Premium Member

It Won't Happen

Capacity will increase as the need increases. It'd have to.

If there was a serious problem then the government will intervene. People and society are too addicted to the Internet for the government to do nothing, if push comes to shove. Not to say I necessarily want the government to intervene, but it would be good if that's the only way.

I'm more concerned about IPv4 and lack of addresses. There are already more people (in the world) than IPv4 addresses, you know.

What we need is IPv6. So even in a worse case scenario (20 IPs per person), there are still plenty to go around.

Do this, and we can instead worry about overpopulation, running out of phone numbers, and the (real) apocalypse, things that would all happen before we run out of IPv6 addresses.
jdir
join:2001-05-04
Santa Clara, CA

jdir

Member

27 Petabytes per month !!!

That's a lot of video the NSA has to watch and record. I guess the NSA has to buy truck load of hard drive a month to record all those videos
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