The Long, Slow Death Of Wireless Voice Minutes The rise of 4G means big changes ahead for carriers... We often talk about how the evolution of wireless broadband networks, the smartphone, and concepts such as Google Voice are going to change everything. Specifically, the rise of mobile VoIP and a multitude of push IM smartphone clients mean the death of not only expensive carrier SMS services -- but of the entire concept of voice "minutes." While the industry may stubbornly refuse this concept, they're slowly realizing that their counter move to this evolution is to simply charge consumers more money elsewhere, be that in the form of hidden below the line fees, higher prices for wireless data, or higher early termination fees. But the death of wireless voice minute pricing is going to be a sluggish affair, as carriers try to slow the organic evolution of the market out of their fear of becoming "dumb pipe" carriers. That of course includes forcing data-only users to buy voice minute bundles, or other restrictions. They'll probably be able to stall these changes well into the introduction of next-generation 4G wireless broadband networks, notes Network World. Phil Redman, an analyst for Gartner research, notes that the evolution away from the idea of voice minutes is going to be particularly slow to arrive for more rural users: Redman notes that carriers are still likely to rely upon minute-based voice plans during the initial stages of LTE and WiMAX deployment, since it will take some time to make those technologies ubiquitous. Thus, users who don't live in major urban areas will likely have to rely on cellular connections for wireless voice service for at least the next three or so years. But once IP-based wireless networks are up and running around the country, it will no longer make sense for users to pay by the minute. And should carriers want to be stubborn and cling to the idea of minutes, users will flock to third party phone applications that offer dirt cheap voice calling. As SMS and voice revenues plummet over the next five years the real question is going to be just how much you're going to have to pay for that wireless data connection.
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 pnh102Reptiles Are Cuddly And PrettyPremium join:2002-05-02 Mount Airy, MD | Might Be Nice If it were possible to purchase just a data plan for a Smartphone ... | |
|  |  tiger72SexaT duorPPremium join:2001-03-28 Saint Louis, MO kudos:1 Reviews:
·T-Mobile US
·AT&T DSL Service
| Re: Might Be Nice Ask and ye shall receive.
»www.t-mobile.com/shop/plans/Cell···internet
T-Mobile Total Internet Whenever minutes: None Weekend minutes: None Weeknight minutes: None Mobile to mobile minutes: None Shared minutes: None Additional minutes: $.45 per minute Data transfer: Unlimited Included Text Messages: None My E-mail: Unlimited Corporate My E-mail: None HotSpot: Unlimited Additional data usage: N/A Price per month: $39.99 -- "What makes us omniscient? Have we a record of omniscience? ...If we can't persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we'd better reexamine our reasoning." -United States Secretary of Defense (1961-1968) Robert S. McNamara | |
|  |  |  GbcueAlmost P.E.Premium join:2001-09-30 Santa Rosa, CA kudos:8 Reviews:
·AT&T U-Verse
| Re: Might Be Nice said by tiger72:Ask and ye shall receive. » www.t-mobile.com/shop/plans/Cell···internetT-Mobile Total Internet Whenever minutes: NoneWeekend minutes: NoneWeeknight minutes: NoneMobile to mobile minutes: None Shared minutes: None Additional minutes: $.45 per minute Data transfer: UnlimitedIncluded Text Messages: None My E-mail: Unlimited Corporate My E-mail: None HotSpot: Unlimited Additional data usage: N/APrice per month: $39.99 Another example of T-Mobile being awesome and not gouging the consumer!
Bravo, T-Mobile! -- My Blog 2.0 | |
|  |  |  |  | | Re: Might Be Nice Phone as modem not included, available for a different price. Voice calls $0.45/min
All it is good for is portable email and Google maps. $40/mo is too much.
A separate phone for voice calls or Vonage Mobile raises the price above competing products. They are getting their money, for sure.
The phone industry is all about pretending you are getting a low cost phone while ensuring there is no possible way you can. | |
|  |  |  |  |  tiger72SexaT duorPPremium join:2001-03-28 Saint Louis, MO kudos:1 Reviews:
·T-Mobile US
·AT&T DSL Service
| Re: Might Be Nice said by severach:Phone as modem not included, available for a different price. Voice calls $0.45/min Let me guess, you have Verizon, right? T-Mobile's approach to tethering is strictly hands-off. They don't charge more for it. Their branded smartphones typically don't restrict it.
All it is good for is portable email and Google maps. $40/mo is too much. Maybe on a dumbphone that's all it would be useful for. On a smartphone, tethering is easy. Android and Nokia smartphones all have free navigation. Stream Pandora/Last.fm. Keep up to date on blogs/facebook. Watch youtube/vimeo/etc videos. download and listen to podcasts.
Do I seriously need to elaborate on all of the things that a smartphone can do with a wireless data connection?
A separate phone for voice calls or Vonage Mobile raises the price above competing products. They are getting their money, for sure. Or you just get any other phone plan. Or you can pay $.45/min. That's a lot per minute, but for some users (like myself) who almost never use their phone except for emergencies, that's not really an issue. And let's say you get an HD2 - just install the Skype app, and get unlimited talk on 3g/edge data. -- "What makes us omniscient? Have we a record of omniscience? ...If we can't persuade nations with comparable values of the merit of our cause, we'd better reexamine our reasoning." -United States Secretary of Defense (1961-1968) Robert S. McNamara | |
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 |  |  NY TelPremium join:2004-04-09 Smithtown, NY kudos:3 Reviews:
·AT&T CallVantage
| said by tiger72:Ask and ye shall receive. » www.t-mobile.com/shop/plans/Cell···internetT-Mobile Total Internet Whenever minutes: NoneWeekend minutes: NoneWeeknight minutes: NoneMobile to mobile minutes: None Shared minutes: None Additional minutes: $.45 per minute Data transfer: UnlimitedIncluded Text Messages: None My E-mail: Unlimited Corporate My E-mail: None HotSpot: Unlimited Additional data usage: N/APrice per month: $39.99 And T-Mobile contiguous towers in my neighborhood: None  | |
|  |  |  |  GbcueAlmost P.E.Premium join:2001-09-30 Santa Rosa, CA kudos:8 Reviews:
·AT&T U-Verse
| Re: Might Be Nice said by NY Tel:said by tiger72:Ask and ye shall receive. » www.t-mobile.com/shop/plans/Cell···internetT-Mobile Total Internet Whenever minutes: NoneWeekend minutes: NoneWeeknight minutes: NoneMobile to mobile minutes: None Shared minutes: None Additional minutes: $.45 per minute Data transfer: UnlimitedIncluded Text Messages: None My E-mail: Unlimited Corporate My E-mail: None HotSpot: Unlimited Additional data usage: N/APrice per month: $39.99 And T-Mobile contiguous towers in my neighborhood: None Looks like you've got plenty of 3G in Smithtown, NY. -- My Blog 2.0 | |
|  |  |  |  |  NY TelPremium join:2004-04-09 Smithtown, NY kudos:3 | Re: Might Be Nice Yeah in all seriousness, zoom out and look a the spaces between the towers. | |
|  |  |  |  |  |  GbcueAlmost P.E.Premium join:2001-09-30 Santa Rosa, CA kudos:8 Reviews:
·AT&T U-Verse
1 edit | Re: Might Be Nice Zoomed out once, twice, and 3 times from that first image.
Don't see many gaps to me. -- My Blog 2.0 | |
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 |  |  pnh102Reptiles Are Cuddly And PrettyPremium join:2002-05-02 Mount Airy, MD | Ok I have to admit that's pretty friggin' cool.
Sadly there is no 3G coverage where I am. -- "Net Neutrality" zealots - the people you can thank for your capped Internet service. | |
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 |  | | Slow death. It may be a slow death, but I think there will still be pay-as-you-go/prepaid plans, since that's a different market niche. | |
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·WOW Internet and..
| You can also do this on most of atts smartphones except the iphone. The plan is just 5 bucks more a month. It has voice pay per use which is like .45 cents a minute but since I only use the voice on that line for emergency I have never spent more than 4.50 on minutes.
I got the plan when I tried to cancel my blackberry so don't know if you can just call in and get it or what. Before taxes the bill is around 35 a month. I got the plan added two months ago. | |
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 |  | | Long Distance all over again This transformation is similar to what happened when telco long distance revenues began their long slow decent. What we got there to stem the tide was mergers, and new business lines (data, mobile). This gives us clues of what's to come. | |
|  | | no brainer We use prepaid just on the principle that it is cheaper for us than to pay a high loaded amount for a regular cell phone. The cheapest Verizon plan we can find that is comparable to what we have as prepay is over a hundred bucks a month. Since we only pay $30 every two months and keep our minutes it's a no brainer. | |
|  ThrowDemsOutIf you can't convince 'em, confuse 'emPremium join:2002-03-03 Mullica Hill, NJ kudos:4 | Already moving to death of voice minutes
My Sprint 450 min voice / unlimited data plan has already gone a long way to making voice minutes irrelevant. All wireless calls to any cell provider is not counted in the minute plan no matter time of day. And all calls to or from landlines after 7 at night and on weekends doesn't count against the plan. Even very heavy cellphone voice use barely makes a dent in the monthly limit.
I suspect that unlimited voice will soon be included at the same cost as their current 450 min plan. | |
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 |  |  56403739Less than 5 months leftPremium join:2006-03-08 Naples, FL kudos:2 | Re: The death of measured services said by OldschoolDSL:Just to name a few. Prices range from 30.00 and up. So its only a question as to how much will we pay for it. Except...none of those actually allow unlimited use. They've just buried the limits in the very fine print as "network management" or "network degradation" actions they can take against you if you exceed what they consider to be your allotment.
Nothing has changed except that the lawyers are getting smarter. | |
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 Reviews:
·Wyoming.com
| I really wish I had a few billion laying around for some acquisitions of network towers and backhaul, plus perhaps Qwest's fiber. I'd brand myself as 'Dumb Pipe' and sell unlimited data plans at a good price point, say $35-$50 depending on income levels in your geographic area, and make a killing. No subsidized handsets or any of that crapola, buy your own, and pay me for as much data on my network as you want. | |
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·WOW Internet and..
| Re: I really wish I had a few billion laying around for said by TransitJohn:some acquisitions of network towers and backhaul, plus perhaps Qwest's fiber. I'd brand myself as 'Dumb Pipe' and sell unlimited data plans at a good price point, say $35-$50 depending on income levels in your geographic area, and make a killing. No subsidized handsets or any of that crapola, buy your own, and pay me for as much data on my network as you want. Not possible. Telcos would find a way to drive you out of business. | |
|  |  |  fiberguyMy views are my own.Premium join:2005-05-20 kudos:3 1 edit | Re: I really wish I had a few billion laying around for Correct... and also not possible becuase he'd be stuck with that network for many years to come while others, who are charging more, would be able to continue to upgrade their networks..
While it sounds nice to offer that kind of service, as a consumer, it's not so easy to sit there and say they'd allow totally open access for $35 to $50 a month for very long. He'd soon find out how fast that network would become overloaded.. customers would be complaining.. he'd not be able to build a nationwide network.. upgrade to new technology.. etc etc etc. They'd be doing it now already.
It's easy to arm chair as a consumer, but when the pen hits the spread sheet, the reality hits...
"Dumb pipe".. more like "pipe dream".. 
Boost, to this day, is the only network that comes close to being a nationwide flat rate carrier.. and that's because that network was built out under a per-minute plan model and was able to expand. However, Nextel will never grow.. it will never expand, and eventually it will reach capacity issues again. As it ages, it will be expensive to keep up, etc. At some point, that network will become de-commissioned, and those users will be migrated over to Sprint's CDMA network or their next-gen, if they really build one out.
Further, he says "buy your own phone".. um... how fast is the Google Nexus flying off the shelf? People don't want to pay full price for phones, that's why they take the deals with contracts and ETFs attached now as it is. Otherwise, they'd be buying phones at full price knowing they could leave when they want. Consumers already have some of these options available to them, and they don't take them.

Also, if this kind of service was possible and profitable, which it really isn't for sustainable long term growth, then carriers like MetroPCS could be killing the competition. The fact remains, with out contracts, and low "all you can use" service plans offered, there is a reason why carriers like Metro aren't nationwide yet. They simply don't have the revenue stream to build out, nor can they really count on what their customer base will look like from this month to the next. Having customers in contracts and ETFs for discounted phones give the large carriers a good idea for forecasting their revenue. The realize that they have customers for X amount of time and are less likely to leave that contract becuase of the $200 fee for breaking. So, they can count on what revenue to expect over the next 24 months. Month to month carriers can't do that. | |
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·AT&T Midwest
·voip.ms
·MyPhoneCompany
| Re: I really wish I had a few billion laying around for said by fiberguy: ... and also not possible becuase he'd be stuck with that network for many years to come while others, who are charging more, would be able to continue to upgrade their networks.. ... "buy your own phone"... People don't want to pay full price for phones, that's why they take the deals with contracts and ETFs attached now as it is. Otherwise, they'd be buying phones at full price knowing they could leave when they want. Consumers already have some of these options available to them, and they don't take them. ... if this kind of service was possible and profitable, which it really isn't for sustainable long term growth, then carriers like MetroPCS could be killing the competition. ... Having customers in contracts and ETFs for discounted phones give the large carriers a good idea for forecasting their revenue. ...Month to month carriers can't do that. I don't see a lot, factually, to disagree with there fiberguy. What I would add though is a questioning of some underlying assumptions.
1. It's not possible for a "dumb pipe" carrier to win because their established, vertical, revenue-forecasted, deep-pocketed rivals would drive them out of business by undercutting the newcomer's pricing strategy during the phase of their business when fixed costs are constantly increasing but revenues have not caught up. In other words, as technology businesses mature, the barriers to entry get higher all the time, which favors incumbents. The cost of capital is so high that it does not make sense to challenge the status quo.
So even if the dump pipes could charge a reasonable rate that allowed for R&D, expansion, and obsolescence, it really wouldn't matter because the established carriers don't have to cover startup costs that they bore when capital was cheaper.
2. Since subsidized, locked phones are the mode, there's no advantage to buying my own phone if I get no break on the monthly rate and I can only use it with one or two carriers. The easiest example of course is the iPhone. I pay $500 or $600 or whatever to own the phone outright. Now I can go to AT&T, no one else, and pay them $30 a month for data and $40 a month for a bucket of minutes. With month-to-month, I can leave any time but then I just have a $500 doorstop. Or I can pay them $70 a month and get the phone for $99. Then I just pay a big early termination fee if I want out of the contract. If I figure my costs over the first two years, I pay more by buying the phone outright.
However if I could buy any phone and take it to any carrier, I could hop around as much as it would make sense to pay setup fees to get lower rates on the services I want.
I agree that the market is divided very cleverly so that carriers cannot (yet) make a business case for doing anything but operating as they do now. In other words, they are making money and they don't want that to change.
So any disruption is likely to help consumers, and to that I say, bring on the dumb pipers. Most will fail but if they give any significant number of people an inkling of how things could be, that's more likely to happen some day. -- USNG: 16TDN2870 Find your Lat-Long: Geocoder | |
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·WOW Internet and..
·Time Warner Cable
| Sprint is already moving Boost Customers off the iDEN network. The BlackBerry Curve on Boost is powered by the Sprint CMDA network and NOT the iDEN network. and for $10 more a month, it's worth getting the BB for a better network; especially for data. -- www.two-pugs.com www.twopugsbrand.com | |
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 SLDPremium join:2002-04-17 San Francisco, CA 1 edit | The last holdout... The last holdout of metered communication service is finally catching up to 1990... I mean 2000, whoops, 2010. But wait, ISPs want to go back!!! | |
|  pnjunctionTeksavvy ExtremePremium join:2008-01-24 Toronto, ON kudos:1 Reviews:
·TekSavvy Cable
| My idea... Somebody should build a phone unit that mimics a usb mobile internet stick in terms of network access. Buy a mobile internet plan, put the sim card into it and go crazy on VOIP/IM/whatever.
You could do this already with a netbook/notebook, headset and usb stick if you wanted but somebody with the cash (Google?) could make a smartphone-type unit easily. | |
|  |  dagg join:2001-03-25 Galt, CA | Re: My idea... said by pnjunction:Somebody should build a phone unit that mimics a usb mobile internet stick in terms of network access. Buy a mobile internet plan, put the sim card into it and go crazy on VOIP/IM/whatever. You could do this already with a netbook/notebook, headset and usb stick if you wanted but somebody with the cash (Google?) could make a smartphone-type unit easily. been done already... sprints been selling them for a couple years now. | |
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 | | few minutes needed I need very few minutes. The minimum I could get with Tmobile is 500 and they want $40/month for that. I need less than 100. Most of what I do will be data. Once Google VOIP comes along, I don't need minutes at all. Just data. That's $40/month they'll hate to loose, but I'll be very happy to get rid of. | |
|  | | I'd love to see a dumber pipe I bet you a number of companies would pay for a sip enabled circuit switched cell phone plan which made the phone become a full part of the corporate network. | |
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