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story category The Looming Bandwidth Apocalypse
Original Arpanet team member proposes flow router technology
(old news - 12:59PM Thursday Oct 25 2007)
tags: business · bandwidth · networking
Larry Roberts, a team member on the original Arpanet, says in a piece for Internet Revolution that the Internet is in trouble. According to Roberts, high-bandwidth content is outpacing our ability to pay for expansion. His solution? Flow router technology his company (Anagran Inc.) is developing and selling.
Flow routing has introduced an important innovation that can help alleviate the capacity crunch: Routers do not need to route every packet, only the first packet in a flow. Thus, the inherent cost of these new routers is one third that of packet routers, and they provide an immediate 3:1 capacity increase when they are inserted into the network, eliminating the need to add capacity and cost for a year or two.
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Roberts's opinion is also picked up by the Christian Science Monitor, which wonders if it isn't just time to scrap the entire Internet and start over. We're not sure that it's a coincidence that the majority of people preaching of bandwidth armageddon are either engaging in politics or trying to sell a product, but the debate has been vibrant.

Andrew Odlyzko, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, has been getting a lot of press lately for stating that his research shows that traffic growth is actually decelerating. Industry claims of 500 percent growth rates are actually closer to a very manageable 50-60 percent, says Odlyzko.

We're really starting to wonder if all the dire warnings of a coming "exaflood" are based more on public relations or actual science. Lawyers, lobbyists and salesmen want you to believe the bandwidth apocalypse is at hand, while most network administrators believe they'll be able to adapt to whatever user demand arises.

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Forums » The Looming Bandwidth Apocalypse
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Post a:

S_engineer

join:2007-05-16
Chicago, IL

Another reason...

for your rates to go up...it's getting to be like the oil companies.
--
Where have the adults gone?

burgermeister
All Computers Are Junk

join:2000-10-23
Utica, MI

Re: Another reason...

The difference is that I can live without broadband -- oil would be a bit more difficult.
--
"I've learned that depression is merely anger without enthusiasm."
markopoleo

join:2003-04-02
Bonne Terre, MO

Re: Another reason...

I can live without oil, broadband would be more difficult

N3OGH
Bear patrol must be working like a charm
Premium
join:2003-11-11
Philly burbs
AUNTIE EM AUNTIE EM

It's a twister it's a twister!!
viperlmw
Premium
join:2005-01-25

Re: Another reason...

Best comedy movie EVER!

panda
Visualize Whirled Peas

join:2000-01-08
Danvers, MA

Re: Another reason...

said by viperlmw See Profile :

Best comedy movie EVER!
Looks like I picked the wrong day to quit amphetamines.
nasadude

join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD
·Comcast

said by S_engineer See Profile :

for your rates to go up...it's getting to be like the oil companies.
ha! as if they need a reason to raise rates.

It's getting to be enough of a pattern that for:

* business reasons, people with "bandwidth saving" or "network management" equipment are jumping on the "running out of bandwidth" wagon to make sales;

* for political reasons, the telcos and their congressional lackeys are jumping on the bandwagon to "prove" that a bandwidth apocalypse is nigh and they have to implement network management, charge more, etc. (coincidentally, the network management part seems to mostly or only effect content sharing activities)

even if more bandwidth capacity is needed, everything I've read that doesn't seem to push an agenda indicates it is not a big deal and wouldn't cost much to simply increase capacity.

Jerm

join:2000-04-10
Richland, WA

Flow = Circuit Switched?

Wow all I can think about is Flow "routing" sounds an awful lot like the old "curcuit switched" PSTN!

S_engineer

join:2007-05-16
Chicago, IL
·Comcast

Re: Flow = Circuit Switched?

"We funded Anagran, because we believe that, with the proliferation of broadband and wireless technologies, there is an increasing demand for TDM/ATM level QoS for voice and video and high throughput TCP” said Dan Brown, Venture Partner at ArrowPath Venture Capital"

these clowns received 8 million dollars from a venture capitalist, of course they're predictions will be dire!
--
Where have the adults gone?

GlobalMind
Domino Dude, POWER Systems Guy
Premium
join:2001-10-29
Hollywood, FL

Ability or willingness?

It seems to me that many areas of the world outside the US, internet services offer dramatically faster tiers than what we see here. If there was some major worldwide crunch then these services would be throttled back and you wouldn't see 100/100 service.

Is the "crunch" due to an inability to afford upgrades or simply because no one wants to pay for it? We're not talking about a natural resource which cannot be reclaimed here, this is all man made stuff.

Perhaps bandwidth isn't limited but it is kinda like the US Treasury - that's OK we'll just print more...and they do.

Also given the fact that so many rural areas are unserved and our various ISPs seem generally unwilling to expand to those areas, one might say they're already seeing this bandwidth shortage. Again, self inflicted.

I would disagree that there is any "looming bandwidth apocalypse." What we're all just going to wake up some day and *poof* no internet? Sure it could happen, but it is more likely due to gear failure than "oops sorry we're fresh out of bandwidth today."
--
TheGlobalMind.com | Speed costs money. How fast do you want to go? | Angus the IT Chap
cmaenginsb
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-19
Palmdale, CA

Re: Ability or willingness?

Most of the 100/100 service in places like Korea are easy to do. Basically doing that is like creating a big lan, it doesn't mean however that they will get those speeds connecting to a server in the US however, in most cases not even close. The concern about capacity is the "backbone crunch" which is complicated in the US by the decentralized nature of the backbone routing centers. Korea has maybe 1-2 equivilants of a MAE point where we have at least 15 I can think of.
--
CCNA, Comtrain Certified Tower Climber

james

join:2001-02-26
antarctica

These idiots need to start looking at the internet the same way cities look at vehicle traffic. You can only do so much to stop people from driving to work, such as starting car pool lanes, and increasing public transportation. But the only REAL solution is to make bigger roads. The great thing about the internet is that it doesnt contribute nearly as much to pollution as traffic and Fiber lines are tiny compared to a 6 lane freeway.

NO ONE drives in New York because there is too much traffic, Amirite?

Yauch

join:2005-06-24

Re: Ability or willingness?

This analogy only works if you're implying that cities should also buy your cars for you.
jp10558
Premium
join:2005-06-24
Willseyville, NY

Re: Ability or willingness?

You know, the problem I see is that I don't understand why more bandwidth now costs so much more than more bandwidth cost going from dial-up to DSL? Or in home networking, or heck - lan networking.

At home, 5 years ago I was paying ~$40 for a 5 port 10/100 switch. Now I can pay the same (or less) for a 5 port gigabit switch. Now, I understand the scale + cost is higher, but if I was spending $10k on a 48 port switch 5 years ago and I'm going to upgrade and pay (and amortize again over 5 years) $10k I can't imagine that I'm not going to get a similar bump from 100Mbit to 1Gbit...

So how does the bandwidth cost more? I mean, all along the way - of course if you're going to AT&T and they haven't and won't do similar upgrades, they will charge more...

As far as I can tell, it's just that upgrades that had been made right along when we were using modems up through cable/dsl now the companies don't want to do the next round of upgrades at the same cost (actually less real cost due to inflation).
--
Opera 9.23(Build 8808); Windows XP Pro SP2;Athlon 64 X2 4600+; 2.5GB PC3200 DDR; 1M/128k DSL; NOD32(Version 2.5.25); Outpost Pro 3;Proxomitron 4.5j Grypen 5/23/07(Opera mod),GPG ID:0x0A1C6EE3

Yauch

join:2005-06-24

Re: Ability or willingness?

I've always believed the answer to that question (what ever it is) is the only real connectivity problem we have in the country.
CMoore2004
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Jonesville, MI
·Sprint Mobile Broa..

Bandwidth?

So there's a bandwidth shortage, but what's that have to do with faster routing? Do they think this will make the actual pipe bigger?
--
Charter 5M | Windows XP MCE SP2 | Mobile AMD Athlon 64 4000+ | 1.5GB RAM | ATI Mobile Radeon X600 128MB | 120GB HDD
joeMI

join:2006-08-15
Mcmillan, MI

time to rewire America

IMO, the problem stems from the breakup of AT&T in the mid-80's.

The telcos today spend all of their time, money and energy in marketing and the latest get-rich-quick schemes. They need to invest for the long-haul.

What we need is a few billion $ to see if the existing copper wires can be used somehow.

If not, it's time to pick the next pipeline (fiber? coax?) and rewire America. And that's every home, not just the high density areas.

Just my two cents,
Joe
--
HughesNet | Business Internet plan | HN7000S | .98m/2W dish | 91W:1050MHz | 65 signal | ACP 82 | 1150Kbps/80Kbps
Belinrahs

join:2007-09-07
Nashville, MI
clubs:
·Millenicom
·HughesNet Satellit..

Re: time to rewire America

It would take The Great Flood to make this happen. Big-name corporations like Comcast aren't willing to lay down the big bucks to make that happen. Of course Verizon is already taking this as far as they can by laying a solid fiber network with strong backbone.

I think the federal government, FCC, and others are making it harder to make this completely happen. We need to look at, for example, South Korea. The government spent money on this, and now the entire country is covered in true broadband that will handle most anything they can throw at it.

What's your opinion?
--
DW6000/1m dish/SatMex5(99'W)/Small Office/Windows XP/Dell Latitude D820/DNS cache + TurboPage disabled, using OpenDNS!!!

PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME!!!
utahluge

join:2004-10-14
Draper, UT
·Comcast
·MSTAR

Re: time to rewire America

said by Belinrahs See Profile :

It would take The Great Flood to make this happen....
Well, socal should be the first to completely rewire with fiber when they start rebuilding!!
Belinrahs

join:2007-09-07
Nashville, MI
clubs:
·Millenicom
·HughesNet Satellit..

Re: time to rewire America

said by utahluge See Profile :

said by Belinrahs See Profile :

It would take The Great Flood to make this happen....
Well, socal should be the first to completely rewire with fiber when they start rebuilding!!
Pfft :P

I want fiber! All I can get is satellite and a fixed wireless ISP but trees and elevation is currently a problem...
--
DW6000/1m dish/SatMex5(99'W)/Small Office/Windows XP/Dell Latitude D820/DNS cache + TurboPage disabled, using OpenDNS!!!

PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME!!!

morbo
Complete Your Transaction

join:2002-01-22
00000
clubs:
it's a nice idea, but you have to know that this will prompt the "goverment can't run anything right! plus too many taxes!" screeming mee mees.

capitalism run amok.

espaeth
Digital Plumber
Premium,MVM
join:2001-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
·voip.ms
·Vitelity VOIP
·Callcentric
·VoiceStick
·ViaTalk
·Comcast
·Embarq

1999 called, they want their news back.

What the heck is this?

Routing hasn't been process switched from any of the major vendors this decade. Everything on the market today has a separation between the control plane and forwarding plane, with hardware ASICs handling the forwarding at wire speed. Arguing that hardware packet routing will "top out" is like arguing that we'll never make faster CPUs. To date none of the major manufactures have expressed any concerns about scaling existing packet routing technologies to 100GigE and beyond.
CMoore2004
Premium
join:2003-02-06
Jonesville, MI

Re: 1999 called, they want their news back.

This is kind of what I was trying to say, in a more technical way.

Ignite
Premium,VIP
join:2004-03-18
UK
clubs:
Exactly, once routing decision on the first packet is made CEF or similar is used to fast switch.

Only constriction is the speed of the switching fabric, which is in the Terabit per second range for carrier class kit now.

alex4life
Alex4life
Premium
join:2001-06-22
Delta, BC

What?

Are these people trying to claim that suddenly, one day, the internet will stop working? Thats crap. Its a service. If the volume increases, you increase capacity. Simple. There's no real limit to increasing capacity. If a certain fiber backbone is getting full, just add more fiber. Its simple.
--
"For in the final analysis, our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, we all breathe the same air, we all cherish our children's future, and we are all mortal." - John F. Kennedy

Phylop
Premium
join:2002-11-17
Reston, VA

FUD?

Isn't this just a bit "FUDdy duddy?" Yes, I did just make that up!

Ignite
Premium,VIP
join:2004-03-18
UK
clubs:

Rubbish

What on earth do they think CEF (Cisco Express Forwarding) does?

Amazingly, it routes the first packet, then using the knowledge acquired from that it fast switches the rest of the flow.

Revolutionary huh?

What a crock...

sporkme
drop the crantini and move it, sister
Premium,MVM
join:2000-07-01
Morristown, NJ
·Optimum Online

Re: Rubbish

said by Ignite See Profile :

Amazingly, it routes the first packet, then using the knowledge acquired from that it fast switches the rest of the flow.

Revolutionary huh?
And before CEF there was "NetFlow Switching" and I believe a few others before CEF was what they settled on. Hell, I think they even had most of the CEF bugs worked out as of a few years ago.
SilverSurfer

join:2007-08-19

The sky is falling!

No such crises exists, unless you count the manufactured kind, like this one is. The only "apocalypse" that is going to hit the Internet is that NN will become a reality and the providers won't be able to arbitrarily discriminate as to which content is permitted like they do now (cough Verizon cough). Therefore, a crises HAD to be manufactured in order to justify charing more for access.

Asmodeus

join:2004-05-26
Spring Valley, CA

not again...


pokesph
It Is Almost Fast
Premium
join:2001-06-25
Sacramento, CA
clubs:

Bandwidth Apocalypse

I blame Comcast.
jester121

join:2003-08-09
Lake Zurich, IL

Oh, that's right....

It's the end of the month and Karl hadn't posted the obligatory "bandwidth apolcalypse" article for October. Fortunately we had BPL yesterday and of course the weekly Comcast bash thread....
markopoleo

join:2003-04-02
Bonne Terre, MO

Re: Oh, that's right....

Yes he has been missing the old "cable vs DSL" articles though. Cable is better fyi. :P
jester121

join:2003-08-09
Lake Zurich, IL
·ViaTalk

Re: Oh, that's right....

said by markopoleo See Profile :

Yes he has been missing the old "cable vs DSL" articles though. Cable is better fyi. :P
No way man, cable companies are a bunch of oversubscribers.

inteller
Sociopaths always win.

join:2003-12-08
Tulsa, OK

Horseshit Friday

No, high bandwidth content is outpacing our WILLINGNESS to expand. There is plenty of dark fiber sitting in trenches ready to be lit, but thugs like ATT and verizon will let it sit there to artificially raise prices. All it takes is a call to someone like Level3 and the bandwidth problems are solved.
Forums » The Looming Bandwidth Apocalypse


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