Search:  

 
 
   News
newer
story category Verizon Stock Outperforms AT&T Stock
Despite drastically more expensive upgrade plans...
(old news - 02:45PM Monday Oct 01 2007)
tags: dsl · Fiber · business · telco · Verizon FIOS · AT&T U-Verse
Tipped by JSRoman See Profile
A few years ago, Verizon investors were whining that the company's $23 billion plan to upgrade their network with FTTH was a grave mistake. While some simply didn't like the upfront install costs, others went so far as to state they thought the project was "doomed." Two years later, the install costs are coming down for Verizon, and investors are warming to the project.
But once-skeptical investors are now putting their money behind Seidenberg. Verizon's stock is up about 18% over the past six months, to more than $44. That's more than double the return of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index and telecom rival AT&T. . . AT&T's stock surged ahead for years, rising nearly 40% during 2005-06, even as Verizon's shares lost ground. But in recent months, their fortunes in the stock market have reversed, with Verizon outdistancing its telecom rival.
Click for full size
Yes, that's the same AT&T that decided to spend a third less than Verizon on network upgrades, and instead focus on VDSL for their IPTV ambitions -- largely to keep investors from throwing a hissy fit. Champagne however is premature, given the amount of work left to do in order to really compete with cable. Also there's the small issue of FiOSTV not yet being profitable.

Related:
  1. When U-Verse and FiOS Compete
  2. Verizon: Offering FiOS In AT&T Turf 'Logical'
  3. Verizon Starts Deploying New HD Channels
  4. FiOS Rep Dishes Out A Few Insider Tips
  5. U-Verse Launches In Tulsa
  6. NYC FiOS Deal Completed
  7. Qwest Blames Bad 2nd Quarter on Competition
  8. U-Verse Launched in Jacksonville
Forums » Verizon Stock Outperforms AT&T Stock
view: topics flat text 
Post a:

MysticGogeta
The Robot Devil
Premium
join:2005-03-14
League City, TX
clubs:

Good

Maybe investors will finally stop whining about the project I would like fios to my house sooner.
--
Team Discovery-Join the fight

N3OGH
They both suck, we're so screwed
Premium
join:2003-11-11
Philly burbs
·Verizon Online DSL

Re: Good

Here's a company that had the vision and balls to keep the stockholders a bay long enough to show what that vision can produce.

Verizon's stock is only going up from here....
--
Petty people are disproportionably corrupted by petty power…
eric89074

join:2004-08-13
Henderson, NV

The investors are finally getting it. Verizon is implementing a technology that will carry TV and the internet to their customer's home for the next 50 years while cable companies and AT&T are just using stopgaps. If they continue to show patience with Verizon they will be rewarded with even higher stock prices.

DownTheShore
Obama '08
Premium
join:2003-12-02
Edison, NJ
clubs:
If they'd fiber-up the multi-dwelling units they'd get more customers and make more money...
--
Life is simply one damned thing after another.

Subaru
1-3-2-4
Premium
join:2001-05-31
Greenwich, CT
clubs:

Re: Good

what he said

DownTheShore
Obama '08
Premium
join:2003-12-02
Edison, NJ
clubs:

Re: Good

...er...what *she* said.

d_l
Barsoom
Premium,MVM
join:2002-12-08
Reno, NV

This story is misleading

Two years later, AT&T is still a far better investment than Verizon.


Don't quit your day job to become a stock analyst, Karl Bode See Profile!
JSRoman
Premium
join:2005-03-10
Callahan, FL


edit:
October 1st, @04:39PM

Re: This story is misleading

said by d_l See Profile :

Two years later, AT&T is still a far better investment than Verizon.
[att=1]
Don't quit your day job to become a stock analyst, Karl Bode See Profile!
I think you need to blame Businessweek not Karl.

IMO, Vz is the better investment going forward versus AT & T. While AT&T is currently deploying what cable already provides, VZ is providing a product which betters cable in internet speeds and is equal if not better in video. Add wireless and you are bulletproof. If only they could get their billing straight.
--
»www.seabee.navy.mil

telcolackey
The Truth? You can't handle the truth

join:2007-04-06
Death Valley, CA

Re: This story is misleading

Just because you are first to deploy new technology (at an early adopter premium) does not mean it is the successful business stratagy long term.
bmn
? ? ?
Premium,ExMod 2003-06
join:2001-03-15
hiatus
·Packet8
·Cox HSI

Re: This story is misleading

said by telcolackey See Profile :

Just because you are not first to deploy new technology...does not mean it is the successful business stratagy long term.
Quote edited and still true...
--
Prove it...
Save the Internet Time (NTP) service, use the pool.

TK Junk Mail
Go ahead, make my day
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Margate City, NJ
clubs:
·Comcast

said by d_l See Profile :

Two years later, AT&T is still a far better investment than Verizon.
Don't quit your day job to become a stock analyst, Karl Bode See Profile!
Of course, the news item and Karl are correct if you just compare the last 6 months. How things work out in the long term is still unknown.

Last 6 months only

--
--
Internet News
My BLOG
My Web Page

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·RoadRunner Cable
·DSL EXTREME
·DSL EXTREME

Re: This story is misleading

I agree... both are valid posts.
If I would have invested 2 years ago... AT&T would have been better.
If I would have invested 6 months ago, Verzon would have been better.

Future = ?

Long term, Verizon's FiOS will most likely do better than Uverse for long term ROI (less $$$ to support, eventually single platform (all fiber). Currently, Verizon hurts for ROI, as its supporting both FTTH and POTS, and costing $$$$$ to buildout.

Uverse costs a lot less to buildout, can buildout quickly, but doesn't have the long term upgrade path. In say 5 years, where HD will be the norm, AT&T may find itself in a bad spot if it can not provide bandwidth. HSI, I suspect is being capped for that very reason. Deploying either new VRADS (shorter loop) and/or pair bonding will be the minimum required to support long(er) term buildout.
--
Canada = Hollywood North

telcolackey
The Truth? You can't handle the truth

join:2007-04-06
Death Valley, CA

Re: This story is misleading

Uverse could wait while VZ pays for all the FTTx development and drives the optical component cost down with volume. I don't think AT&T will strand capital investments with Uverse and can revisit FTTx when there is REAL need vs. marketing and perception.

Sometimes being a close second on technology is a smarter business choice then a technology leader in an unproven territory
.

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·RoadRunner Cable
·DSL EXTREME
·DSL EXTREME

Re: This story is misleading

I tend to agree...cost of fiber deployment (network gear, fiber itself, and any 'new' technologies surrounding FTTH (MOCA, BPON/GPON, etc) should come down.
Cost of labor might be more, however, hopefully AT&T will use Verizon's deployment (and their own Uverse deployment with FTTN and the few FTTH) as learning exercises and methods of keeping the cost down.
--
Canada = Hollywood North
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Covington, LA
The problem is it should have compared them from when they started their big push. But the point of this story wasn't meant to make ATT's FTTN effort look good.

Quiglag
God is Love
Premium
join:2004-09-19
Ontario, CA
·SharkSpace
·PowWeb
·Verizon FIOS

Not only that, but AT&T has 3 times more stock shares then Verizon does. Going by stock prices alone does not work.
--
\o/ My Website | Check Out My Gallery

Maxo
Your tax dollars at work.
Premium,VIP
join:2002-11-04
Tallahassee, FL
clubs:
·Embarq

said by d_l See Profile :

Two years later, AT&T is still a far better investment than Verizon.
[att=1]
Don't quit your day job to become a stock analyst, Karl Bode See Profile!
I think it is deeper than that. The real question is, can it be shown that the spike in stocks is caused by FTTH deployment? Verizon sells a lot more than just FFTH. There could easily be other factors in play.

SkyBlue

join:2007-03-31

said by d_l See Profile :

Two years later, AT&T is still a far better investment than Verizon.
[att=1]
Don't quit your day job to become a stock analyst, Karl Bode See Profile!
HEY DONT BITE THE MODS

Yogibear227

@spcsdns.net

It doesn't account for the fact that Verizon NOT only has better Internet through FTTH all the way to the home.

Verizon as has a better wireles 3G WCDMA Network that the 2.5 Edge network from ATT/SBC.

Verizon may have a ways to go in customer service. But in the long haul that NETWORK will keep its customers happy for DECADES.

The Investors who recognize this will double,triple and maybe even quadruple their $$$ over the next 5 years alone.

Still going to invest in T & FTTN which always will need an upgrade & have problems.. Maintenance of copper is getting much more EXPENSIVE these days..EVDO is even cutting into users that used to use DSL or Satellite & converting them to being Verizon users.

When Verizon upgrades to 4G Wireless it will become even more apparent the mistake that ATT/SBC made in choosing the platform of technology for its future Network.
Uverse has a snowballs chance in HELL competing with FIOS or Cable.

The only thing they can say is that it is cheaper. Cheap doesn't make it in head to head competition. Rewards follow those who have a NETWORK worth jumping on to.
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Covington, LA

Re: This story is misleading

'Cheap doesn't make it in head to head competition.'

The Wii begs to differ.

d_l
Barsoom
Premium,MVM
join:2002-12-08
Reno, NV

First of all, the obligatory FiOS is a technically far superior broadband connection method statement: Rah, Rah FiOS!

... but it is also obscenely expensive to implement. By Verizon's own stated goals, each FiOS subscriber will cost over $2571 to acquire by 2010 ($23 billion less ~$5 billion that would have been spent on copper line upgrades anyway divided by 7 million subscribers) »www22.verizon.com/about/communit···acts.pdf How many years of an internet FiOS subscription does it take for Verizon to recapture that investment so a customer can be profitable and not just a cash-flow source? Five? More than seven?

Note that Verizon has boosted their expected subscriber take rate in 2010 from less than 30% when the FiOS was first proposed to an expected 40% now. They may be able to achieve this take rate (the cost per subscriber goes up even higher if they don't), but it still means that they will be operating BOTH a FiOS network AND a copper network in the regions that the fiber is being deployed negating the savings of switching to an all fiber network. Plus the 2010 fiber deployment plan is only to pass 18/33ths of the homes Verizon serves. What will Verizon do with all that other non-fiber network? Sell it off?

I think one of the assumptions investors might have had is that new FiOS subscribers will be net new broadband customers for Verizon, but that isn't the case. Net DSL adds have been plunging over the past year and a half due to the shrinking base of dial up customers willing to pay for DSL broadband. Over the past few quarters, it appears that not only is FiOS now cannibalizing this limited DSL growth, but by the end of the year could well be causing the DSL subscriber base to contract. Many DSL subscribers will see the need to eventually upgrade their speeds to the FiOS level, but will all of them? Will any of the remaining dial up customers flock to FiOS speeds? How will Verizon force the unwilling to covert?




Thus FiOS growth is now converting profitable DSL customers into a non-profitable, cash-flow only, FiOS customer base.
madrhino

join:2004-07-03

Good

Good.Now hire some more customer service people(and train them).
--
Get Verizon FIOS,The Anti-DIOS

ryder9

join:2003-01-09
here

edit:
October 1st, @07:31PM

Re: Good

they need to STOP firing CSRs,, and making the ones that left do FORCED overtime for 1hr & 1/2 a day, everyday. they ARE hiring.. just different job title with a 40% reduction in pay from existing CSRs
madrhino

join:2004-07-03
·Verizon FIOS
·Comcast

Re: Good

said by ryder9 See Profile :

they need to STOP firing CSRs,, and making the ones that left do FORCED overtime for 1hr & 1/2 a day, everyday. they ARE hiring.. just different job title with a 40% reduction in pay from existing CSRs
Looks they are competing with McDonalds for job desirability.

KrazyDawg

join:2001-02-07
Vallejo, CA
clubs:

Clueless Investors

Investors only know how to invest money to make money failing to research current and future technology. They only look at the cost of things and deem it as "unprofitable." You don't make money without taking risks.

telcolackey
The Truth? You can't handle the truth

join:2007-04-06
Death Valley, CA

Re: Clueless Investors

IOW: Stock price is not always a good indicator of a successful business strategy. YMMV

EverAndAnon

@verizon.net

FiOS-TV

As far as FiOS-TV goes, the only reason I don't have it yet is my anticipation of constant billing errors due to having more than one product from Vz--I just don't want the hassle. Once they get their act cleaned up (if ever) then I'll certainly want to get it... but I can wait. FiOS-TV's footprint certainly isn't anywhere near as large as "cable TV's" (yet), but in 5 years? who knows?

The point is, however things stand now, in a couple years it could all change dramatically; hence, as with all stock market investments, it's a crap-shoot. At this point, I'd bet on Vz--they're the ones with the growth potential.

NPGMBR

join:2001-03-28
Arlington, VA
·Verizon FIOS

Re: FiOS-TV

No shit, I have FIOS-TV and iNet and they only billed me 64 bucks for the first month, 39 for the second and 239 for the third. When I called billing to see what the hell the problem was they put me through to collections. THe collection guy then told me and I quote "I have some choice words of my own for billing but I can say them". He could not figure out why they sent me over to collectiosn when I was paid up or why billing could not get the internet division and the TV division to bill customers at the same time.

Alakar
Facts do not cease to exist when ignored

join:2001-03-23
Milwaukee, WI
·AT&T Midwest

Huh?

The value of Verizon stock:

Closed at $39.41 7-Jan-05
Closed at $37.24 29-Dec-06

Closed at 37.38 5-Jan-07
Closed at 44.28 28-Sep-07

The value of AT&T stock:

Closed at $25.08 7-Jan-05
Closed at $35.75 29-Dec-06

Closed at $33.96 5-Jan-07
Closed at $42.31 28-Sep-07

What the hell are they talking about? Does anybody see this huge gain, because I don't. Looks to me like Verizon has gained a little in stock price but AT&T appears to have gained even more over the periods they are quoting.
--
"Necessity is the plea for every infringement of human freedom; it is the arguments of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves." William Pitt the Younger
bogey780

join:2004-03-19
Covington, LA

Re: Huh?

They did the oldest trick in snookering investors. They picked the timeframe which showed them the best results for their argument. The timeframe was set at 6 months ago when AT&T was at a relative high. So the gain for T has been lower than the gain for VZ which had been greater.

But most other timeframes show AT&T as outperforming VZ.

en102
Canadian, eh?

join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA

Re: Huh?

quote:
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
--
Canada = Hollywood North
bmn
? ? ?
Premium,ExMod 2003-06
join:2001-03-15
hiatus
·Packet8
·Cox HSI

Re: Huh?

Actually, the following quote is better:

"Numbers don't lie, but liar's use numbers."

The numbers presented are 100% correct. How those numbers are presented is where the lie, well, lies.

As for the people complaining that it makes ATT look bad, so what ?
--
Prove it...
Save the Internet Time (NTP) service, use the pool.

jgkolt
Premium
join:2004-02-21
Lakewood, OH
clubs:

Stock vs business

Just because a stock is high or low does not mean the business is doing good. But i do think vzw will do good in the long run.
tmc8080

join:2004-04-24
Floral Park, NY

what's the point?

If the only point was to say: look, fiber is doing better than vdsl. Good, move on. Otherwise, your just talking nonsense.
A snapshot of stock price is based upon historical investor confidence which isn't worth the stock paper it's printed on from day to day.

Both companies have a long uphill battle to regain all that was lost from ignoring the residential consumer for well over a decade. Another thing not to ignore in the immediate future. Docsis 3.0, hardware certifications: Q1, 2008.
rody_44
Premium
join:2004-02-20
Quakertown, PA

wireless

thats where the future is.
Forums » Verizon Stock Outperforms AT&T Stock


Friday, 05-Sep 05:58:10 Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Hosting by www.nac.net - DSL,Hosting & Co-lo | feedback | contact
over 9 years online! © 1999-2008 dslreports.com.