Last week Google announced they'll pony up $4.6 billion at the upcoming 700Mhz spectrum auction if the FCC enacts broad open access guidelines for the spectrum, including open access to competitors. Press coverage calls this "bold" and "risky," while the digerati insist Google is putting their chips on the table, their money where their mouth is, or some poker metaphor variation thereof.

But wait: is promising to invest billions contingent on the FCC enacting policies everyone knows they'll never enact really that bold? It's kind of like promising to quit smoking once Paris Hilton writes her first Grammy-winning rock album. Anyone who thinks Kevin Martin is going to implement Google's suggestions to the letter and truly open up any broadband network on this planet -- hasn't been watching Kevin Martin.

Martin's plan may contain some Carterfone principles, but true open-access won't be included. You can also be sure AT&T & Verizon lobbyists have succeeded in forging ample legal loopholes to any new requirements that won't be apparent (or covered by the press) until the time comes to enforce them. That said, what would really be impressive is if the FCC rejects Google and they invest billions in broadband competition anyway.

For those confused about how this industry works, it's really quite complicated: if the incumbent phone operators want the spectrum they will get it. Once they have it, they will do whatever they want with it. During this process the FCC will smile frequently and occasionally nod.