Back in 2004, Intel was busy hyping WiMax as "the most important thing since the Internet itself," and blogs and technology analysts were prematurely proclaiming the wireless technology a third pipe competitor to DSL and cable. At the time we tried to temper some of that enthusiasm, noting that WiMax most likely would be a niche player in a very big pond. It's five years later and WiMax is, well, a niche player in a very big pond. According to a new study from research firm Ovum, it's likely to stay that way. Both here and abroad:According to Ovum, WiMax hardware remains more expensive than other options, while economic conditions kept upstart carriers struggling for deployment funds. High costs have Ovum predicting that WiMax will account for less than 5% of the world's 1.5 billion fixed and mobile broadband connections by 2014. That would be just 5% of the total market one decade after Intel and analysts proclaimed it would be a major broadband competitor.

That said, the niche role WiMax plays will be important. Here in the States, Clearwire's deployments are playing a starring role as an alternative to incumbent phone company services, and are the backbone of several cable companies' wireless broadband plans. As we noted last week, WiMax 2.0 is scheduled for commercial availability sometime after 2011, promising speeds four times faster than the current incarnation.