openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
to why60loss
Re: Well one can hope the new CEO will invest in FIOSsaid by why60loss:But it's stupid to wait any longer to start building FTTH. Perhaps from your viewpoint as a consumer. From Verizon's position trying to make money, wireless is more lucrative than wireline at this time. said by why60loss:The copper is bleeding funds and customers for no good reason. Yet it still makes money. said by why60loss:I really get a kick out of so called "investors" who act like 5 years is "long term" no matter what business they have shares in. I get a kick out of a "trader" claiming to understand investing. What's long-term in your mind? What's short-term? What's a trade? What's an investment? said by why60loss:I bet you also lost about half of your total 401k or money invested in the market in the 2008 crash. My 401(k) holdings were down 35% while more overall holdings dropped 27% in 2008. Not sure of the relevance, but I didn't "lose 1/2 of my money". Actually, I didn't lose much at all, because I was will positioned in relatively strong companies and I added to my positions, and came out much stronger over the following couple of years. |
|
| openbox9 |
to why60loss
said by why60loss:Well I might just be in for getting some puts on VZ down the road.  Save yourself some money unless cash flow drops and VZ no longer can sustain the divy distributions. But I'm sure you know that. |
|
BiggA
Premium Member
join:2005-11-23
Central CT ARRIS SB6141
Asus RT-AC68
|
to openbox9
Well, if copper isn't a long-term strategy, then they have to install fiber. It's either fiber or copper.
Two things. The 5% of users who "get" gigabit and would subscribe to a $70 gigabit offering are the same 5% that everyone else goes to asking about technology and computers and ISPs and whatnot, and if they're raving about how awesome Verizon gigabit is, then other people will be influenced by that, even if those other people have no need for gigabit themselves. People in America also like over-engineered stuff, look at all the people driving pickup trucks around town. Also, it's a huge marketing benefit for almost no investment. They could charge an install fee or have a contract to make up for the installation cost of putting the Ethernet line in, and they already have the ability to switch people from BPON to GPON, at which point, it's just a matter of throwing a switch. |
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
openbox9
Premium Member
2015-Feb-22 11:27 am
said by BiggA:Well, if copper isn't a long-term strategy, then they have to install fiber. It's either fiber or copper. Yes. said by BiggA:Also, it's a huge marketing benefit for almost no investment. I believe the FiOS brand is doing just fine. When Cable's HSI offerings catch up, Verizon will turn up service. Gigabit is still a marketing gimmick, regardless of what the minority technocrat elites want it to be. |
|
| |
to openbox9
ISPs that think that they need to linger in the last century and call modern technology "noise" are noise themselves. They'll become obsolete as soon as some disruptive technology will increase bandwidth hundreds fold (which is already happening). They are lazy and think they can stay around forever. It's like old transport companies which didn't anticipate better technologies coming.
Gigabit isn't even new. It's already getting old. Hundreds of gigabits will be the norm in not distant future. |
|
1 edit |
to openbox9
My main points: 1) My viewpoint as a customer is set aside once I start talking about a business in the stock market. 2) Yes copper makes money now but they can't just wait until it starts losing %30 to change plans. 3) As per point 2, FTTH takes a long time to build out and can't be done all at once. If they wait until copper is a clear loser profit wise they already lost the game. 4) With point 2 and 3, FTTH now would cost less in upkeep while giving more gains per customer as some will sign up for more costly plans that copper is unable to provide. 5) Cable is only a handful years away from being able to do 1,000mbs downstream on coax to the customer. Does Verizon really want to forfeit all the DSL markets and areas they have left for wireless only. Is it really wise to bet it all on wireless. 6) Yes I might do a put stock option on Verizon and other blue chip stuff when the market hits the fan in about 6 months or so. That bond market can provide hints. 7) About the 2008 crash well that comment was to say most don't think about the long term like they should. That is the only relevance that comment had. 8) Well as a "trader" I am glad I don't understand "investing" like you do. No offence, but I just don't buy into the whole 401(k) and only hold long plan. 9) Long term capital gains tax is for holdings for a year or longer, but in the case of investing in VZ stock 10 years really is the shortest amount of time that should be even thought about for long term investing. So it just depends. My trades are weekly options and sometimes monthly options. So clearly I am in the short term so from that stand point I really don't care what the share holders want. 10) Just a tip, but sometimes it is best to be in cash. It is a position and sometimes the best one to be in. Better than losing loads like many did in 2008. 11) If you don't care what happens to Verizon in the next 10+ years and you are doing a short term investment then just say so. Then you really don't need to care about much we are talking about with fiber and you can just move on to the next big thing with 5 year business plans once Verizon's wireless bobble pops and there wire line business is dead. |
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
to shmerl
Consumers that actually know about a gigabit and demanding it are presently the noise, not the technology itself. Don't worry, it'll shift over time and fiber will be pushed closer to your doorstep. |
|
| |
shmerl
Member
2015-Feb-23 12:55 am
No, you didn't get the point. Those who sleep will become obsolete. And current monopolists obviously are asleep. It has nothing to do with consumer. That's progress for you. |
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
openbox9
Premium Member
2015-Feb-23 1:06 am
I understand your point. I don't see it as an issue since nobody is sleeping. |
|
| openbox9 |
to why60loss
2. Of course not. Don't worry, Verizon will start pushing fiber again when the time is right.
3. Verizon deployed quite a bit a fiber in a relatively short period of time. It can be done when it makes sense.
4. Where's the intersection with the CAPEX, O&M, and revenue curves? Do you honestly believe the bean counters don't have the info about what makes the most fiscal sense for the company?
5. Some of them will be upgraded to fiber, some will be sold off, and others will be left to rot.
6. May want to wait for cash flows to dry up and the divies to become jeopardized. But good luck.
7. Most people have a difficult time looking past tomorrow. That's not surprising.
8. Well, my 401(k) is for tax benefit. Granted, I can't go short with it, but that's what the rest of my portfolio is for, if appropriate. I'll go to bonds in my 401(k) when I feel the market is topping.
9. So, you profess that we need long-term investors, yet you aren't one of them.
10. Cash has it's place.
11. Humorous statement for an admitted "trader". BTW, monthly options don't make you a trader, IMHO. FWIW, my VZ position has done fairly well since I started over six years ago. |
|
| |
to openbox9
Monopolists are sleeping. How much do Verizon and co. invest in research? How much do they lag behind with using best modern technology? They lag immensely. All that is not because of any consumers, but because they can get away will selling junk for insane prices, i.e. because they are monopolists. As soon as someone will find a way to sidestep them to provide vastly better technological option, or as soon as competition will be promoted by unbundling ISP networks, they'll quickly wake up to find themselves on the outskirts of the market. |
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
openbox9
Premium Member
2015-Feb-23 11:58 am
Research? Not sure about research, but I will say Verizon spends over $16B/year in CAPEX. |
|
| |
shmerl
Member
2015-Feb-23 12:06 pm
I mean research of faster ways of communication. |
|
| |
said by shmerl:I mean research of faster ways of communication. The last time they invested heavily in such research was when Bell Labs existed when they were Bell Atlantic. |
|
| |
shmerl
Member
2015-Feb-23 3:32 pm
That's my point. They grew too lazy. |
|
| |
said by shmerl:That's my point. They grew too lazy. Problem is that "opportunists" like openbox9 care nothing about the long term viability of companies, the ironic thing is that eventually this will affect even self centered folks like himself the result being that he will eventually be denied decent services due to excessive profit taking and lack of fiduciary responsibility on the part of these publically traded companies. Of course he claims to be located in Germany which has highly regulated telecommunications infrastruture, where the general public can get speeds most Americans can only dream of at retail prices that are typical here in the USA for single digit Mbps speeds. |
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
openbox9
Premium Member
2015-Feb-23 4:28 pm
You don't know me. I'm far from an opportunist. Yes, I presently live in Germany. My ISP is a cable provider and my service is up to (yes, even in Germany) 100/5 Mbps for ~$40/mth, all behind a nat'd IP address. Good stuff. My other option is with Telekom which is DSL service up to 12/1 Mbps for the same price. Yes, I can pick a different ISP, but guess what, none of them get better than 12/1  What was your point again? |
|
| |
I pay 36$/mo for 768 Kbps with AT&T...because that is all I can get.
That's sums up my point perfectly. |
|
BiggA
Premium Member
join:2005-11-23
Central CT ARRIS SB6141
Asus RT-AC68
|
to openbox9
said by openbox9:I believe the FiOS brand is doing just fine. When Cable's HSI offerings catch up, Verizon will turn up service. Gigabit is still a marketing gimmick, regardless of what the minority technocrat elites want it to be. Wait... WHAT? Cable HSI is faster than FIOS today at the comparable price points. Verizon could blow right by cable is doing some tweaks to their bundling, but they don't want to. Even if it's a marketing gimmick... it would cost them NOTHING more than what it costs them to install the 150/150 today, so why not do it? |
|
| BiggA |
to why60loss
said by why60loss:3) As per point 2, FTTH takes a long time to build out and can't be done all at once. If they wait until copper is a clear loser profit wise they already lost the game. Verizon claims they are 2/3 covered with FIOS. Sure, they probably need to double to triple the length of their plant to get the last 1/3, but still, it's not THAT hard. And the rural areas are probably easy to wire. Just stick it up on the pole, and plug it in. They could run miles and miles of fiber cable in the amount of time it takes to do an NYC block... |
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
to BiggA
said by BiggA:so why not do it? Simple answer; the competition isn't there and there's not a need, yet. |
|
| openbox9 |
to ham3843
That addresses your point, but not the overall story. Sorry to hear that you live in a location with poor wiring. |
|
| openbox9 |
to BiggA
said by BiggA:And the rural areas are probably easy to wire. Just stick it up on the pole, and plug it in. Sounds so simple. Why isn't everyone doing it? |
|
BiggA
Premium Member
join:2005-11-23
Central CT |
to openbox9
It would give them a competitive advantage to get customers locked in and raise APRUs before cable can go gigabit. They've had the ability for several years, and yet they literally haven't bothered to flip the switch on it. |
|
| BiggA |
to openbox9
HFC doesn't scale below a certain density, due to losses in the line, although you'd think cable companies would look at RFoG in rural areas. FIOS doesn't have those losses, it runs something like 8 miles with no amplification needed, so you'd think Verizon would want to take advantage of that, and wire rural areas where they would be the only triple play provider available. |
|
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
openbox9
Premium Member
2015-Feb-25 12:58 am
Great, but you didn't answer my question. I'm guess there's a valid economical reason why everyone isn't simply just stringing up fiber on poles and plugging it in. |
|
| openbox9 |
to BiggA
When cable gets there, Verizon flips the switch. Cable simply can't keep up and there's no reason for Verizon to tip its hand, yet. |
|
| |
to openbox9
The reason is known - greed. They get more profits from wireless, so they don't care about landline at all anymore. |
|
| |
to openbox9
said by openbox9:2. Of course not. Don't worry, Verizon will start pushing fiber again when the time is right.
3. Verizon deployed quite a bit a fiber in a relatively short period of time. It can be done when it makes sense.
4. Where's the intersection with the CAPEX, O&M, and revenue curves? Do you honestly believe the bean counters don't have the info about what makes the most fiscal sense for the company?
5. Some of them will be upgraded to fiber, some will be sold off, and others will be left to rot.
6. May want to wait for cash flows to dry up and the divies to become jeopardized. But good luck.
7. Most people have a difficult time looking past tomorrow. That's not surprising.
8. Well, my 401(k) is for tax benefit. Granted, I can't go short with it, but that's what the rest of my portfolio is for, if appropriate. I'll go to bonds in my 401(k) when I feel the market is topping.
9. So, you profess that we need long-term investors, yet you aren't one of them.
10. Cash has it's place.
11. Humorous statement for an admitted "trader". BTW, monthly options don't make you a trader, IMHO. FWIW, my VZ position has done fairly well since I started over six years ago. I buy and sell options on stock. Trading money to buy options and then selling those options for money. Not sure what else to call that. But what ever floats your boat. The fact you think bean counters think past one year gives me a kick. All the ones I have encountered are penny wise and metric ton of gold stupid. |
|
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144 |
to shmerl
Then why continue this discussion. I've said the margins are better for wireless vs wireline, hence the telecoms focusing their investments in wireless. |
|
