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Craig Moffett: Google Fiber Overhyped, 'A Bit Like Ebola'

To hear top telecom industry Craig Moffett tell it, Google Fiber is very much overhyped -- kind of like a certain infectious disease currently devastating a large chunk of the globe. Or something.

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"To Cable & Satellite investors, Google Fiber is a bit like ebola: very scary and something to be taken seriously," telecom industry analyst Craig Moffett wrote in a research note to investors this week. "But the numbers are very small, it gets more press attention than it deserves, and it ultimately doesn't pose much of a risk (here in the US at least)."

While his choice of metaphor might be a little tasteless, Moffett's not really wrong. Despite the endless hype given Google Fiber in the media, the actual number of Google Fiber remains quite low in context, and most of the nation's broadband providers don't have to worry about Google Fiber coming to their neck of the woods anytime soon.

While Google Fiber doesn't reveal subscriber numbers, Moffett believes the company ended 2014 with less than 30,000 total video subscribers: 194 in Stanford, California; 7,026 in Kansas City, Kansas; 20,140 in Kansas City, Missouri; and 2,507 in Provo, Utah. Those numbers, Moffett notes, are a "testament to how hard, and how slow, it is to build scale as an overbuilder."

Moffett pulled those numbers from the US Copyright Office, which tracks video subscribers because of compulsory license fee requirements. The USCO does not track broadband subscriber totals, which Moffett admits are probably "meaningfully higher."

Of course as we've noted several times, Google Fiber isn't just about bringing real competition to market. It's about bringing attention to the lack of competition overall across most markets and figuring out ways cities can help speed up deployment. In that broader context Google Fiber has been an incredible success, even if the overall subscriber numbers aren't all that impressive yet.
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McShaken
Premium Member
join:2006-02-20
Olympia, WA

1 recommendation

McShaken

Premium Member

So does this mean....

That Comcast is kinda like... Herpes?
46436203 (banned)
join:2013-01-03

5 recommendations

46436203 (banned)

Member

Re: So does this mean....

Analogy makes no sense, I'd take a case of the herp over Ebola any day.

Comcast is more like a case of terminal cancer.

why60loss
Premium Member
join:2012-09-20

1 recommendation

why60loss

Premium Member

Re: So does this mean....

said by 46436203:

Analogy makes no sense, I'd take a case of the herp over Ebola any day.

Comcast is more like a case of terminal cancer.

No that would be Century link, I have Comcast and in 99% of places Century link/Verizon is much worse than any Comcrap or even Crime warner cable.

But Google fiber is what has driven AT&T to gigapower and in turn is making TWC care about the Raleigh market(And by extension some other places/areas and markets) so I shall thank them even if they haven't planted any fiber in the dirt yet.

The video subs are really kind of high as you can only get TV as a package deal with 1Gbs internet for a total of $120 and you have no options to change what you get TV package wise so I bet the number for internet subs is much higher. Maybe upto 200,000 to 300,000 in total across markets both "free" 5mbs plan and 1Gb's HSI included.
existenz
join:2014-02-12

existenz

Member

Re: So does this mean....

If it's true there are currently 27K KC video subscribers rolled out (end of 2014) and if polls are true that about 30% or so of total have Gbit only or the 'free' 5M, there would be about 40K total rolled out so far. Google has just started north/south KC rollout this year, so not counted. And the burbs won't start til later this year to next. 40K is a curious number because TWC reported 300K KC customers before GF appeared and now TWC is reporting 260K in KC market - down 40K.

One known number is that GF has agreements with about 600 KC apt/condo buildings so far, all get at least the 'free' 5M. If avg of 50 units, that's 30K potential subs just for apt/condos (and more building agreements grow every month).

The estimate of registrations so far is 75K+ (before the burbs) but GF rollout is still looking pretty slow.

djrobx
Premium Member
join:2000-05-31
Reno, NV

1 recommendation

djrobx to why60loss

Premium Member

to why60loss

But Google fiber is what has driven AT&T to gigapower and in turn is making TWC care about the Raleigh market(And by extension some other places/areas and markets) so I shall thank them even if they haven't planted any fiber in the dirt yet.

Yup. Google fiber pretty much spawned Gigapower. AT&T once had LA on the possible future Gigapower deployment map. TWC then deploys Maxx to its entire LA footprint. Winning! It may not be 1gbps, but it's pretty darn fast, and it's here today. Thanks, Google!
WhatNow
Premium Member
join:2009-05-06
Charlotte, NC

WhatNow to 46436203

Premium Member

to 46436203
Parkinson's Disease.

NOCMan
MadMacHatter
Premium Member
join:2004-09-30
Colorado Springs, CO

NOCMan to 46436203

Premium Member

to 46436203
Ebola is temporary, herpes is for life. Course you're more likely to die from Ebola.

spewak
R.I.P Dadkins
Premium Member
join:2001-08-07
Elk Grove, CA
·Consolidated Com..

spewak to 46436203

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to 46436203
said by 46436203:

Comcast is more like a case of terminal cancer.

Correction: Moffett is more like a case of terminal cancer!
mmay149q
Premium Member
join:2009-03-05
Dallas, TX

mmay149q to McShaken

Premium Member

to McShaken
No it means they are like gonasyphaherpatitis.... lol
dfxmatt
join:2007-08-21
Crystal Lake, IL

1 recommendation

dfxmatt to McShaken

Member

to McShaken
No, it means Craig Moffett has herpes (sarcasm). Remember who this guy who is behind the times on technological advancement and gets way too many people to cover him. Even a broken alarm clock (this is the proper analogy) like Moffett can still be right twice a day.
openbox9
Premium Member
join:2004-01-26
71144

openbox9

Premium Member

Re: So does this mean....

He's an analyst. He gathers data, packages it into consumable bites, and tries to sell his services to investors. Nothing more, nothing less.
majortom1029
join:2006-10-19
Medford, NY

majortom1029

Member

hmm

For now its overhyped. Lets see what happens if the timewarner,comcast merger gets denied. They will all be fighting over cablevision. I would love to see google suprise everyone and buy cablevision. Then they won't be overhyped anymore.
shmerl
join:2013-10-21

shmerl

Member

Re: hmm

Google buying Cablevision? That's an interesting scenario.

ITALIAN926
join:2003-08-16

ITALIAN926

Member

Re: hmm

Yea, thats not happening.
Kearnstd
Space Elf
Premium Member
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ

Kearnstd

Premium Member

Re: hmm

Yea they do not want to buy into anything with extra baggage. And cablevision has baggage galore. They are more than an ISP and Cable Company. They own things like MSG(the venue).
shmerl
join:2013-10-21

shmerl

Member

Re: hmm

Google don't need to buy everything. It's all up to the terms of the deal. They can buy like 80% and close the rest. This stuff is commonplace.
shmerl

shmerl to ITALIAN926

Member

to ITALIAN926
I'm not even sure Cablevision want to sell the company. So probably it's not happening.

ITALIAN926
join:2003-08-16

ITALIAN926

Member

Re: hmm

Even if Cablevision did, Google wouldnt buy a company that is already primarily in competition with Verizon, with a huge FTTP presence.
shmerl
join:2013-10-21

shmerl

Member

Re: hmm

Didn't Google care about boosting competition? That's exactly that.

batterup
I Can Not Tell A Lie.
Premium Member
join:2003-02-06
Netcong, NJ

batterup to shmerl

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to shmerl
said by shmerl:

Google buying Cablevision? That's an interesting scenario.

I doubt the Dolans will sell Cablevision for $1.
shmerl
join:2013-10-21

shmerl

Member

Re: hmm

I'm not sure they need to. It's not like they are in a crisis.
Albert71292
join:2004-10-31
West Monroe, LA

Albert71292

Member

To be honest...

If Google Fiber were available to me, I wouldn't get the video portion either. Got rid of cable TV a few years ago because every channel was becoming "All reality shows, all the time!". ONLY way I'd accept cable TV would be if it were free!

why60loss
Premium Member
join:2012-09-20

1 recommendation

why60loss

Premium Member

Re: To be honest...

said by Albert71292:

If Google Fiber were available to me, I wouldn't get the video portion either. Got rid of cable TV a few years ago because every channel was becoming "All reality shows, all the time!". ONLY way I'd accept cable TV would be if it were free!

I agree with the weather channel talking about everything but the dang weather, the history channel talking about ice road truckers, people living out in the wild and national geographic being all about jails and drug wars.

w0g
o.O
join:2001-08-30
Springfield, OR

w0g

Member

Re: To be honest...

Its really good to disconnect from video anyway. When i was a young kid all i used was broadband, didnt watch TV at all ..

As a younger kid i did, toonami and various sci fi programming.

Now its time to roam the real world and not give a fuck about watching mind hogging TV programs.

RobBob
@googlefiber.net

RobBob

Anon

industry shill's

There are no brakes on the hype train
existenz
join:2014-02-12

existenz

Member

Re: industry shill's

And as a result KC area now has 4 Gbit ISPs, TWC upgrading to 300M, Charter/Comcast at 100M. Many in KC get 3-4 high end options. Competition works.
coryw
join:2013-12-22
Flagstaff, AZ

coryw

Member

Re: industry shill's

This is the case in the three or four areas where Google can artificially boost this competition. Provo might not even count here because Utah already has for broadband service competition on the same physical lines, and plenty of companies are interconnected on that system.

For the other 99% of the country, this just isn't going to happen, and you might even argue that Google Fiber entering Provo is damaging to it because Provo's not going to want to fund and then dig up their streets again for a municipal fibering after Google comes in, even though their neighbors in Orem are online in that manner.
mikesco8
join:2006-02-17
Southwick, MA

mikesco8

Member

It is those challenges he acknowleges...

That require the big three to be kept in check. I also believe that while Verizon and AT&T seem to currently allowing Comcast and the other Cable companies alone by not upgrading, 5-10 years from now they will be the worst of enemies. When 5G hits and there is plenty of capacity on the wireless side. While I am happy for those who have Google fiber come into their area, I fully expect competition from wireless to come to my town before they do.

djrobx
Premium Member
join:2000-05-31
Reno, NV

djrobx

Premium Member

Re: It is those challenges he acknowleges...

When 5G hits and there is plenty of capacity on the wireless side

I dunno, wireless tech seems to barley keep up with mobile demand, let alone trying to also support heavy urban and suburban home usage like HD Netflix binge watching. Rural or sparse areas, sure, but I don't see wireless being a primary home broadband solution within the next decade.

AT&T's HSDPA "faux-G" (pre-LTE) used to be pretty adequate, but these days, god help you if you get stuck on a 4G tower in an area where there's a lot of people. It's not uncommon for me to encounter a full strength "4G" signal that's so crowded I can barely get an iMessage through. I suspect by the time we get "5g" mobile users will already be gobbling up a lot of that capacity for themselves, too.
existenz
join:2014-02-12

1 recommendation

existenz

Member

Re: It is those challenges he acknowleges...

If this pCell techology delivers as they claim, might give wireless at home far more capacity...
»www.wired.com/2015/03/perlman/
mikesco8
join:2006-02-17
Southwick, MA

mikesco8 to djrobx

Member

to djrobx
Time will tell, but supposedly 5G is suppose to offer 1000 times the capacity of 4g, if it truly does, I would say it should be offer a viable alternative. Even if it doesn't it will eventually come if there is a demand and money to be made.
tkdslr
join:2004-04-24
Pompano Beach, FL

tkdslr

Member

Re: It is those challenges he acknowleges...

You can't count on 5G speeds until they get rid of all the 2G, 3G, and 4G tech (older phones/towers/etc.) That threshold won't occur for many years into the future.

That older tech chews up the available bandwidth(fewer Bit/Hz/tower), and that's one reason why T-mobile's LTE network is currently ranked fastest. (Fibre to tower, New LTE 4x2 MIMO tower tech + up to date phones.)
mmay149q
Premium Member
join:2009-03-05
Dallas, TX

mmay149q

Premium Member

What I don't get

With all the anti-competitveness and hype of Google Fiber and people wanting more from their ISP's now is why don't we see 802.11AC 1 Gbits providers yet or around? Or at all? With how far WiFi has come, I could easily see it being a competitor vs big cable/dsl/vdsl/fiber especially in rural markets!

••••••••

Flyonthewall
@teksavvy.com

Flyonthewall

Anon

What did you expect

Google Fiber to be everywhere overnight? Even the incumbents state it takes time to build, and they've had lines for years that have been left stagnant and wanting for maintenance and upgrades.

Let them pooh pooh it, I'm sure the dinosaurs thought the dark sky was just early night fall.

neill6705
join:2014-08-09

neill6705

Member

Re: What did you expect

Google Fiber has really done a great deal consider the short amount of time it's been around.
davidhoffman
Premium Member
join:2009-11-19
Warner Robins, GA

1 recommendation

davidhoffman

Premium Member

Google Fiber

We discuss Gigabit symmetrical internet connectivity more than we would have if Google Fiber had not come along. Without GF we would have been discussing 100 Mbps down/10 mbps up. So, even if the present geographic deployment is relatively small, it has had a very big impact on the national discourse. We have seen what a serious third competitor can due to change the pricing dynamic in an existing duopoly situation.

GF is has also had an effect on municipalities. Ridiculously cumbersome permitting and construction rules are being rethought. That can benefit many contractors.

•••••

NOCMan
MadMacHatter
Premium Member
join:2004-09-30
Colorado Springs, CO

NOCMan

Premium Member

Due to contracts

The numbers could be higher and if it is a superior product then a few years will tell once people's contracts expire and if they're smart enough to shop for a cheaper service they may choose Google.

v6movement
@pppoe.ca

v6movement

Anon

Craig Moffett the Kim Kardashian of the industry

This guy gets way more press attention than he deserves. He's like the Kim Kardashian of the industry. Keeps popping up with worthless crap and everyone is like can you go away you worthless turd..

•••
Core0000
Premium Member
join:2008-05-04
Somerset, KY

Core0000

Premium Member

Cord Cutters

Well I wouldn't subscribe to google fiber for flipping "video" if it were available... I would do it for the internet, cat videos #humortag, and latency free gaming.. or at least the best online gaming experience I could get...

Anyways the article made me look up the guy and it looks like
he didn't believe 'cord cutters' were really either.. but finally became a believer. »allthingsd.com/20130604/ ··· for-now/